Why the mystery of F1's greatest ever hasn't been answered - not even by science

So, that's that settled then. The sport's biggest and most ubiquitous bone of contention. Done. That one of who is the best driver ever, over and above the equipment they had access to. That one we thought near unsolvable given everything. All by a team of academics from the Universities of Sheffield and Bristol, and using statistical analysis.

According to the statistical study,
Juan Manuel Fangio's 
F1's best of all time
By Unknown - Museo Juan Manuel
 Fangio, reimpreso en "La fotografía
en la historia argentina", Tomo I,
Clarín, ISBN 950-782-643-2,
Public Domain, https://commons.
wikimedia.org/w/index.php?
curid=3934090

And when its news release announcing this was published just over a week ago it caused quite the stir. All seemed rather monumental indeed. Underlining the view even the (not necessarily always science-loving) Daily Mail proclaimed in its headline that what we had revealed before us was "the best Formula One driver of all time according to SCIENCE". Yes it actually capitalised the word. It was as if we were getting something irrefutable.

The first few on the study's all-time driver ranking - Juan Manuel Fangio top, followed by Alain Prost, Fernando Alonso, Jim Clark and Jackie Stewart - are hardly hideous. Michael Schumacher appeared low in ninth but when he was considered from before his first retirement in 2006 only he shot up to third, which again looked fair enough (as an aside, a curiosity about the reporting of this study is that there is more than one list floating about, in addition to the pre/post Schumi lists the one presented in the academic paper has Alonso sixth rather than his widely-reported placing of third, and it's not explained by the Schumi shift apparently as the Daily Mail article at least shows Alonso fourth when Schumi from 2006 and before only is considered).

But then it gets patchy. Stirling Moss is but 35th in the ranking (some 12 places behind Marc Surer) while the likes of Niki Lauda, Nigel Mansell, Alberto Ascari, Jochen Rindt and Gilles Villeneuve are simply nowhere to be seen in the top 50. It all gets, um, a little more interesting too as Christian Fittipaldi is in the elevated position of 12th best driver ever while the luminary that is Louis Rosier is placed 19th. And unless this pair were against just about all assessments in fact secret F1 geniuses never given their break in a good car - in addition to the drivers listed above being actually vastly over-rated, again contrary most assessments - it would seem the study has some shortcomings.

Brazilian GP Report: Seb's dry run

We've been here before. Eight times on the spin before today to be precise. And sure enough not even the Interlagos venue's legendary capacity for mischief did anything to upset his confident, preponderant strut. Sebastian Vettel won the Brazilian Grand Prix, and did so in familiar style: seizing control of the race early and never relinquishing it, nor ever looking like doing so. In the end, the only thing that was unexpected was that the anticipated rain didn't arrive - well, not properly anyway. Not that greater quantities likely would have stopped Seb.

Sebastian Vettel: rounding off a
triumphant year with another win
Photo: Octane Photography

And as seems to be a race-by-race occurrence at the moment a couple more all-time records went Seb's way today: both Michael Schumacher's mark of 13 wins in a season and Alberto Ascari's record of nine on the bounce - a record before now which always had an untouchable, almost mythical, slant - were matched.

It underlines that Seb is on a pedestal right now, and that his rivals have long since been counting down the days to the season end and to the big shifts in regulations for 2014, which send everyone back to base camp, to put them out of their misery. But there are reasons to think those may not scupper Seb much either.

Interlagos Preview: Seb on cloud nine?

You don't need me to tell you that for a good while now there’s been little to watch in F1 2013-style other than Sebastian Vettel's haughty preponderance. And as we stand before the season's final round it feels ever so slightly like the season's conclusion will be putting all of the Seb/Red Bull's rivals - long since having raised the white flag - rather out of their misery. Indeed it feels like the only thing that could put them out of their misery.

Sebastian Vettel looks set to continue
his run of wins, and a couple more
records will go his way if he does
Photo: Octane Photography

If it seems a while since Vettel was last beaten, that's because it has been. July to be precise, in the Hungarian round prior to the summer break. And now in Brazil yet another record lays vulnerable to Seb's run of success: Alberto Ascari's all-time mark of nine wins on the bounce, a record that for a long time had seemed as mythical and untouchable as the planet Magrethea. Seb in his extended spell of glory is all set to match it. He's also set to equal Michael Schumacher's high tide watermark of 13 wins in a season. And barring unusual occurrences surely he will.

But somewhere in there lies the rub, as if you're looking for a venue in which to avoid unusual occurrences Interlagos in Brazil is probably the last you'd pick. It has an intangible quality - always has - of being a place where things happen, from the sublime to the ridiculous. It has good claim to being the closest thing the sport has to the Bermuda Triangle.

History's examples run the gamut: Ayrton Senna's long overdue and highly emotionally-charged home victory of 1991, with just sixth gear remaining in the box, rain falling and shoulders spent; his follow-up win in 1993 when a freak rainstorm on the pit straight wiped out the dominant Alain Prost; advertising hoardings falling on the track in the 2000 qualifying session (one of which was hit by Jean Alesi's Sauber) which caused the session to be ended early; the madcap wet-dry race of 2003, wherein a freak river ran across the track at Curva do Sol, accounting for several cars, and Giancarlo Fisichella was an unlikely victor after a big crash involving Mark Webber and Fernando Alonso stopped the race ahead of time (and in what surely counts as an Interlagos special, Fisi didn't know about his win until a week later due to a timing glitch); Michael Schumacher's prodigious ascent through the field in his final race of his ‘first’ F1 career in 2006 after a gearbox problem in qualifying and then an early-race puncture sent him to the back, with the big finish of him putting the manners on his Ferrari replacement…; the mysterious technical problem that delayed Lewis Hamilton for almost a lap in 2007 and resulted in a freshman title slipping through his fingers, into the hands of the waiting Kimi Raikkonen; Lewis claiming the 2008 title for himself in the most dramatic of circumstances by passing a hobbled Timo Glock at the last corner, depriving Felipe Massa at home in the most heart-wrenching fashion; Nico Hulkenberg blitzing F1's frontrunners by claiming pole in 2010; and then of course last season’s corkscrew final act, which resulted eventually in Vettel seizing crown number three.

Abu Dhabi GP Report: Wonderfully predictable

The tiny departure from the usual script resultant of yesterday's qualifying was corrected almost immediately. By the first turn we were rapidly back into a performance we've seen many times before: Sebastian Vettel out front; Sebastian Vettel in command. And, almost inexorably, an hour and a half later it was Sebastian Vettel: winner of the 2013 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

We've been saying for a while that we're in one of those periodic spells - that all sports get into and not just F1 - wherein only the very unusual can deprive one of the competitors of victory; we indeed didn't get the very unusual in today's Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, and sure enough just as night follows day we did get the anticipated victory for Seb.

Abu Dhabi was just the latest of Seb's familiar triumphs
Photo: Octane Photography

The race for first place as mentioned lasted as long as turn one. Vettel - unexpectedly - missed out on pole position thanks in part to a small error on his final effort. But Seb reminded all in today's race that they cannot count on such faltering, however minor, becoming a regular occurrence. He took the lead at the start, pole man Webber slipped behind Nico Rosberg, and everything from that very moment on in terms of first place seemed mere formalisation. Yet even if Webber had led off the line, such was Vettel's command on race pace you feel that almost nothing would have deprived him of the win ultimately.

In that familiar way of his, at the end of lap one Seb was just shy of two seconds to the good, and the gap grew almost inevitably from there. Then it multiplied as those closest behind (a relative term) peeled into the pits early, emerging in among those stretching out their initial stint, with overtaking never straightforward on this Yas Marina circuit. By the time Webber, by now ahead of Rosberg, cleared them Vettel had pitted himself (rejoining still first, natch) and was close to half a minute up the road. And despite apparently spending much of the race trying to go slowly, judging by the radio communications with his engineer, Vettel won in the end by 30.8 seconds. This was no less than another rout.

Indian GP Report: Seb does it his way

And now, the end (of F1 in 2013) is near, and so we face the final curtain. And more, much more than this, Seb did it his way.

As expected, the 2013 driver's championship dropped definitively today in Sebastian Vettel's favour. As we probably also should have foreseen Seb went full gun after the Indian Grand Prix win even though it was much more the minimum he required to cruise safely over the title line. It seems to be the only way Seb knows. And he didn't waver from his path even after most of the small amount of lingering tension over the championship's destination evaporated in the early laps.

Sebastian Vettel did indeed clinch title number four
today, and did so in fine style
Photo: Octane Photography

It was an unusually madcap race (by recent standards) at the Buddh International Circuit, with the big gap between the two available tyre compounds' durability resulting in variable, jumbled fare. Various highly divergent strategies were enacted, with the 'net' order not all that clear for much of the way. It applied even to Seb, as while he took his standard pole on soft tyres there were a couple of potential 'tortoises' further down threatening Seb's 'hare', in particular his team mate Mark Webber and his one championship rival (in the loosest sense) Fernando Alonso lurking in the pack, starting on mediums.

But in that way we've long ago got used to whatever the circumstances or strategies Seb makes the best of it absolutely by blitzing the timing screens, with purple sector following purple sector. Today in that sense was like groundhog day, even though he pitted at the end of lap 2 to discard his soft tyres and dropped into the pack he continued to bear down on victory like a heat seeking missile, with decisive overtakes and rapid pace. Webber, pretty much alone, did look to be threatening his supremacy for much of the first half of the race via his unorthodox approach. But then before you knew it both had made their final stops at around the two-thirds mark and Seb was 12 seconds to the good and couldn't be caught.

Criminal records? Why just about all F1 records are problematic

The Japanese Grand Prix of 2013 was an important one. Or at least it was for the statisticians, as an all-time F1 record dropped. One that for much of history has been considered a highly valued mark.

Fernando Alonso, as has been anticipated for a while, beat the haughty Michael Schumacher's record for most points scored in F1 ever, now having a total of 1,571 compared with Schumi's 1,566. And yet with it has come a conspicuous round of guffawing. The points total doesn't mean anything, they said; the systems have changed so much over time so as to make comparisons meaningless. Alonso himself however - albeit with something of a glint in his eye - declared it 'great' to set the new mark.

Fernando Alonso claimed F1's
all-time points record in Japan
Photo: Octane Photography

But really, is it so unreasonable for Alonso to be pleased with this one? Or, to flip the question around, could such charges of non-comparability be laid before just about any F1 record? Don't they all at least somewhere involve imperfect comparisons? Is it not the case that they all require qualification?

All sports evolve over time of course, so just about any sporting record necessarily involves an element of imperfect comparison. But I struggle to think of another activity that has changed as much as F1 has from generation to generation, and therefore is so apt for the numbers and historical marks to be taken with not so much a pinch of salt but rather a trailer-load of it.

Further thoughts on the Italian Grand Prix

Vettel/Red Bull dominance - a matter of perspective
Time to employ some good old British understatement: the Italian Grand Prix last Sunday wasn't exactly a thriller. But you probably didn't need me to tell you that.

Sebastian Vettel's dominance -
mild by historical comparison
Photo: Octane Photography

And there was much doom and gloom afterwards: that F1 had become too boring; that Sebastian Vettel's dominance was a considerable test of resolve; that there is little point watching the season's remaining rounds. But perhaps some perspective is needed on all of this. On one hand the breadth of the Vettel/Red Bull dominance is indeed close to unprecedented, indeed with championship double number four on the way only the lauded Michael Schumacher/Ferrari link up and its five title doubles on the bounce in the early noughties has beaten it, or even come close (no other driver/team combination has got more than two clean sweeps in a row). But the depth of the dominance is not. Far from it.

To take last Sunday's race as an example, yes Vettel's win had a strong air of inevitability about it almost from the first corner, but he only won by five seconds. And it made it a grand total of two wins in a row for him. Even in 2011 - the year often cited as the Vettel/Red Bull zenith - his wins were very rarely by more than ten seconds. Often they were by much less even than that. It all hardly suggests that they are on another level to the opposition.