Inside Line F1 Podcast - With Which Team Will Verstappen Win His F1 Titles With?

Photo: Octane Photography

Max Verstappen is in the form of his life. But with which team will his record-breaking Formula 1 career be with? Will he stay put at Red Bull Racing or jump ship to Mercedes or Ferrari? Red Bull Racing-Honda is exciting, but how soon before it can deliver a championship winning package to Verstappen?

Will Verstappen be as patient with Red Bull Racing as it was with him during his find-my-feet days? Could Mercedes use this opportunity to swoop in and sign Verstappen as Lewis Hamilton's successor?

Yes, lots of questions in this week's episode of the Inside Line F1 Podcast as we focus on Max Verstappen and his supposedly long future in Formula 1. We also talk about the Gasly-Albon swap and make a bold prediction of either Grosjean or Hulkenberg not having a seat in 2020. Finally, are McLaren hunting for the Triple Crown themselves? Tune in!

(Season 2019, Episode 30)
Subscribe to the Inside Line F1 Podcast on iTunes, audioBoom (RSS feed), Spotify and Google Podcasts for your weekly dose of Formula 1 humour

Inside Line F1 Podcast - F1 Needs To Apologise To Valtteri Bottas

Every sport needs to build and worship its heroes, the current flavour for Formula 1 being Lewis Hamilton. But Formula 1 took one step too far when it asked Valtteri Bottas, Hamilton's title rival, to sing praises for the reigning world champion not once, but twice. Enough, lads. Let's respect the title rivalry between the two Mercedes drivers.

In this week's episode of the Inside Line F1 Podcast, we wonder if Esteban Ocon will eventually have to settle for a Renault in 2020 after having Mercedes dreams. Could Ocon-Renault lead to an exit from the sport for Nico Hulkenberg? By what races this year would Mercedes and Lewis Hamilton wrap up their titles? Who would you believe more when it comes to 'how tough it is to race a Formula 1 car?', Max Verstappen or Lewis Hamilton-Romain Grosjean? Finally, should Mercedes continue racing in Formula 1 despite not having anything left to prove? And of course, did you know that Formula 1 actually played 'Happy Birthday' on the podium instead of the national anthem for the winning driver in one of the previous editions of the Austrian Grand Prix? Tune in!

(Season 2019, Episode 25)
Subscribe to the Inside Line F1 Podcast on iTunes, audioBoom (RSS feed) and Google Podcasts for your weekly dose of Formula 1 humour

My Top 10 F1 Drivers of 2018: The Rest…

Here are my views on those F1 drivers from 2018 who didn't make my top 10 ranking from a few days ago. If you're interested, you can read the top 10 here.

Photo: Octane Photography

Going through the 'other 10' in final drivers' table order brings us first to Sergio Perez, for whom 2018 was more of the same – for good and ill. He racked up plenty of points plus in the way that apparently only he can bagged a podium finish when the very rare opportunity offered itself. Yet Perez couldn't alter his long-time predicament of lingering in the middle ground between being a good midfielder (with money) and a talent that a top team will covet. It didn't help that, while there as ever wasn't much in it, his Force India team-mate Esteban Ocon had the pace edge for the most part. Nor did his hooligan performance in Singapore, first showing not much effort to avoid a collision with Ocon then – far worse – having a rage swipe at Sergey Sirotkin.

Kevin Magnussen's season was rather a breakthrough. With him at last getting the many benefits of a second season in a race seat, the results flowed particularly in the early part of the campaign. He didn't always string things together though, and more broadly once team-mate Romain Grosjean sorted himself out Magnussen tended to be the second Haas. He also gave more evidence to sustain his enfant terrible image – the criticisms can be excessive but still his move on Pierre Gasly in Baku then on Charles Leclerc at Suzuka were hard to defend. He sometimes gives the impression of revelling in the status but equally it may become a burden.

Abu Dhabi GP Report - The year in microcosm

If they say to start as you mean to go on, what do they say about finishing?

Lewis Hamilton led from the off and always was in command
Photo: Octane Photography

Lewis Hamilton won the season-closing Abu Dhabi Grand Prix from pole, his 11th victory of his latest championship season. And as Martin Brundle noted, it's not clear if he broke sweat in so doing.

There was the odd adventure along the way; the odd cause for doubt. But the running thread through all of the Yas Marina race was that Hamilton's Mercedes was well in the best place. It was 2018 in microcosm.

The main detour was a result of Kimi Raikkonen's Ferrari stopping on lap 7 with no power on the pit straight. The Virtual Safety Car was enacted and Hamilton alone among the leaders took advantage of the lower time-loss by making his sole pitstop. He emerged in fifth, planning to run to the end and just 8.8 seconds off the new leader, his stable-mate Valtteri Bottas. Hamilton sounded sceptical at times but it did work out, as when others ahead pitted he had a net lead of something in the order of 10s. The only matter then was whether his tyres could go to the end.

Brazilian GP Report - More to it

Lewis Hamilton in the Brazilian Grand Prix won his 10th race of an imperious 2018 season. Ho-hum. Not even that Hamilton had never before won a Grand Prix after taping up that year's title stopped him this time. Mercedes with it sealed its latest constructors' championship. Ho and indeed hum.

Lewis Hamilton won again, but there were
many adventures along the way
Photo: Octane Photography

Not a bit of it though. The above paragraph holds only if one falls foul of the old one about judging books by their covers. This one at Interlagos was a thriller, with massive detours on the way to what appears its very standard outcome.

The source of the intrigue was unforeseen too. It wasn't because of an anticipated Ferrari challenge to Mercedes, as that didn't arrive. Despite Sebastian Vettel qualifying a smidgen off poleman Hamilton, him reckoning he'd have had top spot without a small mistake. Despite too that Vettel started on more durable tyres. The anticipated rain didn't arrive either.

No, it was a thriller because of a challenge to Mercedes that came instead - against anticipation - from Red Bull.

Red Bull challenged Mercedes. Red Bull passed Mercedes. Red Bull had this one in the palm of its hand. Until Red Bull lost it. As Red Bull hit a backmarker. And that was only the start of the consternation.

Japanese GP Betting Preview - Hi ho silver

The Russian round last weekend felt like a moment of realisation. Ferrari it seems doesn't have the inherent pace advantage; not anymore at any stretch. Perhaps, some reckon, the FIA had a word in its ear about its famous engine mode.

Lewis Hamilton now has the upper hand on Sebastian Vettel
Photo: Octane Photography

So the championship points table is not a trick of the light. Mercedes and particularly Lewis Hamilton are indeed worthy favourites. And they should especially be worthy favourites at Suzuka this weekend, scene of the latest Japanese Grand Prix. Flowing tracks such as this one are usually where the Merc is at its most potent and a silver car has won the last four here.

Hamilton and Merc being favourite isn't good for the flutter-minded F1 fan as their odds tend to be pretty tight at the best of times. Nevertheless you can back Hamilton for pole and win at 5/6 at 11/13 respectively.

There are though a couple of points to consider. One is Hamilton hasn't always been that happy at Suzuka. Even though he's won here three times last year was his first pole and by his own admission he hasn't always found a suitable set-up for this track. With this and that Mercedes is expected to be on top is it worth backing the other Merc of Valtteri Bottas?

Italian GP Report - Come together

After Spa last week we thought things would be different. But in its back yard the chief theme of 2018 reasserted - that Ferrari for all its stunning speed isn't beginning to make good on it where it really matters. That something insists on coming along to trip it up. Sometimes of its own doing.

Lewis Hamilton against all expectations
defeated Ferrari to win
Photo: Octane Photography

Matters in the Italian Grand Prix weekend started just as expected though. Continuing the Spa pattern Ferrari on Monza's rapid circuit had a clear pace advantage, including on its title foe targets Mercedes and Lewis Hamilton. After qualifying the grid's front row was all red. But a day later things were scarcely recognisable. Hamilton had won and left Ferrari's homeland with an extended 30 point lead in the championship table over the Scuderia's Sebastian Vettel.

And with the talk of big themes this shift was not down to just one thing. Rather a lot of - often ostensibly minor - things came together. Lenin reminded us that everything is connected to everything else. It's especially the case in F1.

Mighty oaks from little acorns grow. The acorns that grew into the mighty oak of Ferrari's defeat were planted the day before the race, in that very same qualifying session. There was one fly in Vettel's Saturday ointment, that his team-mate Kimi Raikkonen took pole position ahead of him. The Finn was aided by that he ran behind Vettel on track and thus got the benefit of his slipstream on Monza's many lengthy straights. Vettel meanwhile had been fed out by his team a little late and therefore didn't really benefit from the car ahead in the same way (Hamilton's, as it happened).

Italian GP Betting Preview - Just like old times?

F1 has in a sense gone full circle. Time was we could expect a Ferrari upturn for the Italian Grand Prix at Monza. As its home round, with everything that entails, the red team would turn up with a 'special'. For various reasons those days are in the past. But for the first Italian visit in a good while we nevertheless turn up this time with Ferrari emphatically the team to beat.

The view the rest will be getting of Ferrari?
Photo: Octane Photography

The Scuderia generally has been on top pace-wise in recent rounds, and in the Belgian stop-off last weekend - at a track just like Monza with plenty of full throttle sections - both Ferrari and Mercedes turned up with new power units and Ferrari remained at least as far ahead on that front as it had been before. Perhaps more so. Sebastian Vettel sailed past Lewis Hamilton on lap one as if he was parked on the way to a comfortable victory. Much to Hamilton's audible chagrin.

And as intimated this advantage will count for a lot at Monza, and the bookies have noticed judging by that they've made Vettel favourite for the pole and win. The odds still look pretty tempting as you'll near enough double your money if Vettel prevails, with 8/11 for him to get pole and 19/20 to win the race.

With this too you may be similarly tempted by the 8/13 available for Vettel's fellow Ferrari Kimi Raikkonen to finish on the podium. The grapevine has him being retained at the Scuderia for next year, and another Ferrari tradition is announcing drivers for the following year at Monza - so with this the Finn should be in a good mood. You can also get 3/5 on a Ferrari to win.

Belgian GP Betting Preview - Hard rain

Formula 1 reconvenes after a four-week summer break with the consideration at the front remaining familiar - victory in this weekend's Belgian Grand Prix at Spa looks in advance a matter primarily of Lewis Hamilton's Mercedes versus Sebastian Vettel's Ferrari.

Once again at the front it looks like it'll be a matter
 of Sebastian Vettel versus Lewis Hamilton
Photo: Octane Photography

Ferrari had the quickest car in the weeks before the break, and Vettel won at the last similar-ish challenge to Spa at Silverstone. That 70% of the Spa track is taken at full throttle should be to his benefit too as the Ferrari engine has also been mighty recently. But then again in this time for one reason or another - some their own doing; some not - Vettel and Ferrari haven't always converted their advantage to victory.

And this time the very thing that scuppered them in the last weekend before the break in Hungary is due to re-occur. Rain.

The bookies agree that Hamilton versus Vettel is a tough call as the pair have exactly the same odds to win and to take pole - respectively 6/4 and 11/8.

Hungarian GP Report - Lightening strikes twice

In a season of often inexplicable twists and turns, this one in Hungary was instead an case of history repeating. Appropriately for 2018, the lightening hitting the precise same spots as in Germany a week ago was in itself highly uncanny.

Lewis Hamilton took his second unlikely win in a row
Photo: Octane Photography

Just like then Mercedes and particularly Lewis Hamilton at the Hungaroring looked out of it. Just like then Sebastian Vettel and Ferrari looked poised to make a major gain in the championship. Just like then rain then arrived and tilted things decisively towards Hamilton, who against expectations made the sizeable points gain instead. Only this time the rain arrived in qualifying.

A few sniggered behind their palms when Hamilton hinted at divine intervention after the elements came to his aid in Germany. But with them now doing that right on cue for two rounds now on the spin, it may as well have been have been a matter of someone consciously guiding events his way.

Qualifying order means a lot in F1 of course, and it has long meant a lot at the tight and sinewy Hungaroring. Sure enough leading from the race's off formed the basis of Hamilton's latest victory - but his performance on Sunday and particularly Saturday was highly impressive even so.

German GP Report - Hamilton rains on Vettel's parade

We never learn. Despite constant reminders. Despite everything.

Lewis Hamilton took an unlikely win
Photo: Octane Photography

F1's mantras are familiar - that anything can and does happen; that it's not over until it's over; that no points are handed out until the chequered flag is waved. The trouble is we don't abide by them. Not even in this season which has contained more shifts - between and within weekends - than likely just about any other.

The German Grand Prix weekend at Hockenheim was but the latest reminder of the mantras' efficacy. And the sternest one. Sebastian Vettel took a crushing pole position in his Ferrari - Mercedes spoke of the Italian car having a half second advantage on the straights alone. And moreover Vettel's title foe Lewis Hamilton started 14th after a qualifying hydraulics failure on his Mercedes. Worse for him the suggestion floated that it was his error that caused the failure. Sure enough the arithmetic started about how much Vettel would extend his title lead by.

But once the points were handed out things could hardly have looked more different. Vettel was in the wall and Hamilton, somehow, had come through to win. His title lead was not only reclaimed but healthy looking at 17. In a season of turns this was its sharpest.

German GP Betting Preview - Home where the hurt is?

We again start our betting preview with a lament. The usual one that F1, particularly at the front, has lately been both close and unpredictable. Even in the last round, at Silverstone, where we thought that it was obvious Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes country. It didn't work out that way.

Sebastian Vettel looks well poised - but his record
at Hockenheim is poor
Photo: Octane Photography

This time for the German Grand Prix at Hockenheim taking place this weekend we can add the lament that it's been two years and one major regulation change since F1 cars were last here. So there's not even much useful previous when seeking to identify betting value.

Still if recent rounds have taught us anything it is that Ferrari will be in the mix pretty much anywhere. It's gone well recently on similar tracks to this one, made up mainly of straights separated by short and sharp turns (such as Montreal and the Red Bull Ring). It possibly has the strongest engine these days too which will matter here as a large proportion of the lap is full throttle

There's only one problem, that homeboy Sebastian Vettel's record here is weirdly poor - his best (official) Hockenheim result is third and he's only ever led three laps at this circuit.

British GP Betting Preview - Not looking for a new England

We might think that we start this one with little hope. In our previous betting preview we bemoaned that predicting F1 outcomes is a perilous task right now, and then we had an Austrian race where what we got barely resembled what we reasonably anticipated at the start.

It's worth backing a Mercedes at Silverstone
Photo: Octane Photography

But that we're at Silverstone means the clouds part (unusually for Silverstone you might say) and we get a clear view. Because we have a striking consistent previous to go on.

Mercedes usually dominates here and Lewis Hamilton especially dominates - he's won his last four home rounds. And even with the Mercedes and Lewis trauma that went down in Austria likely the biggest implication was that Merc had stolen a march on the rest with its upgrade.

Therefore there's likely little point putting your money anywhere else for pole and win. And even so the odds for Hamilton to do these offer a pretty decent return - he can be backed at 4/5 to get pole and evens to win.

While if you really want to get behind the prospect of Lewis dominating then there are other ways you can bet on it. A pole, fastest lap and win triumvirate for any driver - i.e. not just Hamilton - can be backed at 11/4 and a pole winning margin of over two tenths can be backed at evens. Mercedes tends also to be strong in first practice and you can back Hamilton to top that session at 5/4.

Austrian GP Report - The hills are alive

As the sage Mark Gallagher noted after this one, "Ferrari will be waking up this morning dazed by how they are leading both the drivers' and constructors' championships; Mercedes at how they are not."

Max Verstappen was an unlikely - and worthy - winner
Photo: Octane Photography

Gallagher's assessment indicates that this Austrian Grand Prix was no ordinary Grand Prix - indeed it was one of those wherein advance expectation and actual outcome barely were on nodding terms.

It started though looking like it would be extremely ordinary - Mercedes armed with a technical upgrade strode a way clear and locked out the grid's front row. All spoke of two races in one with those not in silver aiming for third place at most. Then when Mercedes maintained its one-two after some first lap frolics, Lewis Hamilton ahead and poleman Valtteri Bottas boxing his way back to second after a poor get-go, that indeed looked like that.

And yet. Mercedes's empire fell within a single lap.

Red Bull Ring Preview - Mountain mist

F1 has developed a season. A season within a season if you like.

The end of the season - F1 visits the Red Bull Ring
Photo: Octane Photography

We had Montreal, then Paul Ricard. And now this weekend we have the Red Bull Ring in Austria.

These circuits have a family resemblance - lengthy straights are predominant and are separated mainly by technical turns - though like Paul Ricard the Red Bull Ring has some quicker corners too. Straightline speed, braking stability and traction are the chief discriminators.

Trouble is that even so it doesn't really help us predict what will happen this weekend. In Montreal Ferrari was well on top of Mercedes; in Paul Ricard they almost exactly swapped positions. Last year's Austrian visit doesn't help either, which was won for Valtteri Bottas's Merc but only just from Sebastian Vettel's Ferrari. There was only four hundredths between them in qualifying.

Then there's where we are. This circuit often serves up fare of the non-predictable kind.

French GP Report - Zig and zag

It's worth reflecting that in not a single F1 round this season have we ended the weekend with the same sense of the competitive pecking order that we started the weekend with. Yes both Lewis Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel have won races back-to-back this year, but in both cases the first of the pair was fortunate; the second was imperious.

Lewis Hamilton bounced back in France
Photo: Octane Photography

And in France at the Paul Ricard circuit - F1's first visit to the country since 2008 and the first to this circuit since 1990 - this continued. Hamilton and Mercedes zigged while Vettel and Ferrari zagged. Vettel's joy and Hamilton's woe from Montreal last time out were almost exactly reversed.

Vettel when asked after qualifying what was different mused, "the weather, the track, the location - the car is the same, same chassis - the tyres..."

And in a tight fight at the front these combined can tilt things either way.

Inside Line F1 Podcast - The Romain Grosjean Interview

In a bonus episode before the 2018 French Grand Prix, we have the senior-most French driver in Formula 1, Romain Grosjean, as a guest on the Inside Line F1 Podcast. In this week's special episode, we speak to the Haas F1 Team driver about his season so far, emotions about finally having a home race in France, ambitions for a Ferrari drive and his contract extension talks for 2019.

Also, Grosjean, who stood on the podium of the 2013 Indian Grand Prix, has a special message for Indian fans. Tune in!

(Season 2018, Episode 19)
Subscribe to the Inside Line F1 Podcast on iTunes and on audioBoom (RSS feed) for your weekly dose of Formula 1 humour

Canadian GP Report - Righting the past's wrongs

In this one, the sense of the past was conspicuous.

In a special place for Ferrari Sebastian Vettel took the win
Photo: Octane Photography

Sebastian Vettel took Canadian Grand Prix victory for Ferrari, astonishingly the Italian team's first win in Canada since 2004. And the previous day he had taken its first pole here since 2001.

All this was done on the 40th anniversary of F1's first Montreal visit which then was won by local hero and archetypal Ferrari pilot Gilles Villeneuve, after whom the circuit is named. The four decade milestone was marked on the track's 'Salut Gilles' etching on the start line as well as by son Jacques taking that 1978 Ferrari on a demonstration lap before the race. Judging by the crowd's response to Vettel's win there remains plenty of Scuderia loyalty here.

"The Canadian tifosi, I think they have been waiting long enough for Ferrari to do well here," Vettel noted afterwards. "Forty years after Gilles won his Grand Prix here, I think it's great to show that Ferrari is still alive, that Ferrari is still there, winning races. I'm just extremely proud to become part of that story."

Spanish GP Report - Meet the new boss, same as the old boss

There are two things we associate chiefly with Spanish Grands Prix at the Barcelona track. One is dull races with little overtaking. The other is a strong steer of the competitive pecking order among the competing cars.

Mercedes and particularly Lewis Hamilton
dominated the Spanish Grand Prix
Photo: Octane Photography 

We certainly got the former this time. It was indeed, to use the well-worn euphemism, not a thriller. But if the latter applies too it then it's ominous. And a familiar sort of ominous.

As if this one was dull it was made so in large part by Mercedes's dominance. And particularly that of Lewis Hamilton.

"It's one of those happy Lewis days when he's unbeatable," opined Martin Brundle early on, noting something that hasn't been present all that often in 2018 prior to this one. It had that sort of inevitability about it from the point poleman Lewis led into turn one.

He won by 20 seconds and probably would have been happy to drive his W09 straight home to Monaco too if such things were allowed.

Azerbaijan GP Report - Baku pain

Baku eventually did its worst. A Lewis Hamilton victory really shouldn't seem incongruous - even with Mercedes incongruously going three rounds without a win - but that it did says a lot about this latest Azerbaijan Grand Prix. "Lady luck was on our side," as Lewis's engineer said in summing up. But this race takes a lot of summing up.

Lewis Hamilton incongruously came thorough to win
Photo: Pirelli Media

A lot like the Chinese Grand Prix last time out this one swung. As in China Sebastian Vettel appeared initially to have the race well under control out front with a drive redolent of his Red Bull pomp, including clearing the chasing Lewis by three seconds in the first lap of green flag racing.

From then it was nip and tuck for a while, and it appeared Lewis was the one to blink. On lap 22 he locked up egregiously and went down the turn 1 escape road then pitted immediately due to his flat-spots. It was another one-stopper as a default, and the new tyre effect on the soft compound wasn't up to much. Seb pitted himself nine laps later to stay ahead of Lewis comfortably, but in that seemingly inoffensive move he lost the race.