Austrian Grand Prix Betting Preview: F1 is Back in July

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As most F1 fans are well aware, the 2020 season will finally get underway with the Austrian Grand Prix taking place from July 3 to 5. The action will take place at the Red Bull Ring, Spielberg, and both fans and teams will be raring to get started after months of waiting around.

There will, of course, be two grand prix races at Spielberg this season, with another race – the Styrian Grand Prix – scheduled to take place a week later. You can get more details on the plans for the new F1 season, but, for this betting preview, we are going to concentrate on the first race of the season. Let’s dive in:

Race Winner
It won’t surprise you to learn that Lewis Hamilton is the race favourite, with a price of 9/5 (all odds here sourced from MansionBet UK) to get off to a winning start in Spielberg. That’s quite a big price when you consider Hamilton is odds-on to win the drivers’ championship. However, it’s probably reflective of the fact that Hamilton tends to start the season slowly by his standards. In fact, you will have to go back to 2015 to find a time when Hamilton won a season opener. Will that apply in Spielberg?

Bookmakers really believe that Max Verstappen can get close to Hamilton this season, and at 2/1 he is almost neck and neck with the Brit in this race. The Red Bull Ring is seen as home turf for Verstappen and his Red Bull team, and he did win the race back in 2018 and 2019. Elsewhere, Charles Leclerc is priced at 4/1, Sebastian Vettel at 11/2 and Valtteri Bottas at 6/1.

Podium Position 
You can get the likes of Hamilton and Verstappen at short prices to finish in the podium positions in this race, but an interesting candidate for punters is Red Bull’s Alexander Albon. Verstappen’s team-mate has never finished in the top three before during his short career, but he has the goods to start delivering on his promise. He is cited at 3/1 for a podium finish, and it looks like an interesting bet to make, especially if you consider Red Bull’s insider knowledge of the circuit. He is a much larger 28/1 if you fancy the upset of an outright win.

Fastest Qualifier 
Similar to the race winner odds, the markets for pole position have Hamilton at 7/4 and Verstappen at 9/5. Intriguingly, Bottas is the next in line at 7/2. That tells you that bookmakers have faith in the Mercedes car to deliver fast laps, but that they still believe the jury is out on the Finn having the nous to consistently deliver race wins like his team-mate.

Winning Team 
Mercedes is the firm favourite for delivering a win on the day, with bookies factoring in the chances of either Hamilton or Bottas taking the chequered flag at the end of the race. It’s hard to look beyond the price offered of 11/10 for Mercedes. However, if you do believe Albon has a chance this season, then the 9/5 offered for Red Bull is only marginally smaller than the price for a Verstappen win. That might be the value bet.

Artes Max from Spain / CC BY-SA
(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)

Overall Thoughts 
Whether we like it or not, this is not going to business as usual for F1. Starting the season in the middle of summer is not ideal for any team so you can expect some surprises. As such, it might be the opportune moment to take a risk on your betting strategy, perhaps by overlooking the usual candidates. Whatever happens, it will be fantastic to see those cars line up on the grid once more.

All odds were correct at the time of writing.

2020 F1 Betting Preview: More of the same from Hamilton and Mercedes?

Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes ended another season on top
Photo: Octane Photography

As the sadly recently-departed Clive James once noted, the next Formula 1 season begins at the same moment the previous one ends. Not least for the betting-minded F1 fan, considering where’s best to place their money such as by scanning this Bodog review. Bodog is a big name in the sports betting industry and usually provides great odds for F1 races. So, with the 2019 campaign just finished, minds turn immediately to 2020.

The 2019 F1 season looked more of the same. Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes won the titles again, the team winning 15 of the 21 races; Hamilton 11 of them. There are not major regulation changes for 2020, meaning the ‘feed in’ to next year should be fairly direct. And all this is reflected in Hamilton’s odds to be 2020 world champion, just 4/6.

Yet scratch the surface of 2019 and Mercedes’ dominance was not as the headline figures suggested. It often was not the fastest car, and instead relied on consistency, organisation and avoiding errors to beat its Ferrari and Red Bull foes. Hamilton indeed only got five pole positions – two fewer than Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc.

Ferrari appeared often to have the raw material to challenge Mercedes much more closely in the table. If for 2020 it can sort out its organisational problems – big ‘if’ – titles are plausible. And, with this, Leclerc is a possibly-generous 6/1 to be next season’s champion.

Can Max Verstappen (left) or Charles Leclerc (right)
topple Hamilton in 2020?
Photo: Octane Photography

His team-mate Sebastian Vettel is even longer at 15/2. His 2019 year was trying but he wasn’t outclassed by Leclerc, and is not to be written off.

Neither is the prodigious Max Verstappen, and some rated his personal 2019 as better than Hamilton’s. The key is whether his Red Bull will be up to the task. It often looked that way in the latter part of this year, with its Honda power unit appearing a match for the rest.

Then again Red Bull has a habit of starting seasons slowly which leaves it too far off the championship pace. Verstappen 2020 champion odds still look decent at 7/1.

And with Hamilton the clear 2020 favourite there’s another tantalising set of odds on offer – who will ‘win’ the drivers’ championship without Hamilton? Those odds look tempting: Leclerc is 7/4; Verstappen 2/1 and Vettel 3/1.

But what about the ‘incumbent’? Hamilton’s team-mate Valtteri Bottas was a comfortable runner-up behind Hamilton in the table this year. He’s a full 5/2 to be another to deliver more of the same in 2020.

F1 2019 Betting Preview - Time to strike?

With Formula 1 pre-season testing, annually the tropes are aired. Don't read much at all into the lap times; it won't be until qualifying in the opening round that we really know what's going on.

The story remains the same as it has for a while -
how is Mercedes to be toppled?
Photo: Octane Photography

But it's true also what they say also about risk and reward. With the risks of making calls at a time such as now when testing is going on, there also are opportunities for the F1 gambler to make hay.

I've heard stories about windfalls from 2009's pre-season, which indicated the new Brawn team would have the year to itself and betting odds hadn't yet caught up with the point. Same goes for McLaren creaming the season in 1988. In other words if there's serious money to be made in F1 betting, now is the time to lay your stake.

Sadly it often feels that grand shifts between seasons such as the two I've cited are something left firmly in F1's past. Particularly with Mercedes having won every world championship since the hybrid formula started in 2014, plus with the 'big three' teams of Merc, Ferrari and Red Bull notoriously on a different pace and resource planet to the rest.

Abu Dhabi GP Betting Preview - Looking to the future

Abu Dhabi races are usually about two men. Lewis Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel have won at this futuristic-looking venue three times apiece and revel in the track's challenges. The bookies agree and give the pair the shortest odds for pole and win - with Vettel the favourite ahead of Hamilton.

Local specialist Lewis Hamilton seems to
offer the best betting value
Photo: Octane Photography

But given Vettel's recent erratic form Hamilton may be the better bet, plus the evidence of Brazil last time out is that Hamilton is not letting up with the championship won. In addition Ferrari has never won here, and Seb's not won in Abu Dhabi since his Red Bull days in 2013.

You can back Hamilton to be fastest qualifier at 6/4 and to win at 11/4. The main cause for concern herein - and which may explain Vettel's shorter odds - is that it remains to be seen if Hamilton needs to take a grid penalty after his engine problems in Brazil.

This may though present an opportunity, as if Hamilton is blasting through the pack on race day with a fresh engine, strategic freedom and fresh tyres (due to not giving qualifying full beans) then the 3/1 for him to get the race's fastest lap becomes an even better bet than it would have been anyway.

Brazilian GP Betting Preview - After the Lord Mayor's show

For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. And so it is for Lewis Hamilton. As even in the direct aftermath of his greatest triumph so far - his fifth divers' title sealed - there is a potential negative implication. One that may interest the F1 fan looking to profit in the betting market in advance of this weekend's Brazilian Grand Prix.

Will Hamilton, his title won, miss out on race victory?
Photo: Octane Photography

As Hamilton in his F1 career has taken part in five Grands Prix after he's wrapped up that year's championship, and has not won any of them. It's led some to suggest that he's prone to taking his eye slightly off the ball at such moments. While in a more specific sense we can add that his record at the Interlagos circuit isn't all that good by his very exacting standards - he's only won here once and taken two poles.

And in exactly these circumstances 12 months ago at this very venue Hamilton in effect dashed his victory chances immediately by trashing his Mercedes on the first lap of qualifying. While the then-as-now recently-vanquished Sebastian Vettel gave himself and his recently-vanquished Ferrari team some belated succour by winning.

Mexican GP Betting Preview - Interesting times

Life for the F1 gambler has just got a whole lot more interesting. For however many rounds we've sought to make hay from what, at the top level, was expected with reason to be a Lewis Hamilton demonstration run.

Can Ferrari continue its Austin renaissance in Mexico?
By ProtoplasmaKid [CC BY-SA 4.0  (https://creative
commons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)],
from Wikimedia Commons

Now we exist in the wake of the Austin visit last weekend, wherein the kaleidoscope was shaken. There Ferrari rediscovered the pace that it mislaid sometime in early September. Plus for the first time since before then imperious Mercedes had a messy time of it, with a dud strategy call, tyre blistering, water pump reliability problems and revising its wheels rims in fear of a protest. Hamilton hinted at problems over and above even these.

Then there's where we are this weekend coming. This Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez circuit in Mexico City is far from a standard case. Ferrari was likely the fastest car here last year and should have won. The Mercedes meanwhile doesn't appear to much like the place; the silver pair qualified four tenths off Sebastian Vettel on pole 12 months ago and in the race Valtteri Bottas - who unlike Hamilton wasn't delayed - finished almost 20 seconds behind the cruising victor Max Verstappen.

US GP Betting Preview - Lone Star State

Appropriate to the Lone Star State, F1 therein has a lone star. Lewis Hamilton tends to be untouchable in his visits to Austin, Texas.

F1 races at Austin are usually about one man
Photo: Octane Photography

The numbers pay testimony. He's won five of F1's six Austin races. Taking it back further he's won six US Grands Prix of the last seven. Taking it instead to the most recent general form he's also won six of the last seven rounds anywhere. This weekend for the latest US Grand Prix he'll have the scent of a fifth world championship in his nostrils, so there'll be no shortage of motivation. He beams throughout his Austin weekends and it shows in his driving.

For the race win at least backing him seems what they call a no brainer. His odds are appropriately short, but still the 8/13 you can get on a Hamilton victory looks worth your wager.

Japanese GP Betting Preview - Hi ho silver

The Russian round last weekend felt like a moment of realisation. Ferrari it seems doesn't have the inherent pace advantage; not anymore at any stretch. Perhaps, some reckon, the FIA had a word in its ear about its famous engine mode.

Lewis Hamilton now has the upper hand on Sebastian Vettel
Photo: Octane Photography

So the championship points table is not a trick of the light. Mercedes and particularly Lewis Hamilton are indeed worthy favourites. And they should especially be worthy favourites at Suzuka this weekend, scene of the latest Japanese Grand Prix. Flowing tracks such as this one are usually where the Merc is at its most potent and a silver car has won the last four here.

Hamilton and Merc being favourite isn't good for the flutter-minded F1 fan as their odds tend to be pretty tight at the best of times. Nevertheless you can back Hamilton for pole and win at 5/6 at 11/13 respectively.

There are though a couple of points to consider. One is Hamilton hasn't always been that happy at Suzuka. Even though he's won here three times last year was his first pole and by his own admission he hasn't always found a suitable set-up for this track. With this and that Mercedes is expected to be on top is it worth backing the other Merc of Valtteri Bottas?

Russian GP Betting Preview - A familiar conversation

As George Constanza once asked, haven't we had this conversation before?

Can Ferrari at last thwart Lewis Hamilton
Photo: Octane Photography

Mercedes has never been beaten in a Russian Grand Prix at Sochi since the round landed on the calendar in 2014, but that may be a bum steer. Once again it's a circuit on which Ferrari should be on top - it's a power track which will suit it plus it locked out the front row here last year in an age wherein such a thing was rare. The place suits Sebastian Vettel's driving style too.

Plus unlike at Singapore Lewis Hamilton may not be thwarting Ferrari with a personalised tour de force, as he hasn't always gone well here - even though he's won twice in four visits. He didn't get a set-up or rhythm here last year indeed and was well off his team-mate in qualifying and the race, plus he's been out-qualified by his stable mate in the last three Russia visits. The bookies still make Hamilton favourite for both pole and win, but for the reasons given it may be worth putting your money elsewhere. Unless you fancy him to confound us once again.

Singapore GP Betting Preview - Red devil?

You'll likely have seen those cartoons that feature the shoulder angel and shoulder devil. Where they pop up in turn on the protagonist's respective shoulders - the angel imploring the said protagonist to stay on the right track; the devil trying to lead them astray. For the Singapore round this weekend, who prevails will likely be a matter of angel Ferrari versus devil Ferrari.

Which way will Ferrari's Singapore weekend go?
Photo: Octane Photography

Ferrari should win in Singapore. It's pretty persistently had the quickest car in various circumstances recently, plus for its chief rival Mercedes this one self-admittedly is a bogey circuit - a point backed up by history.

But as we know things have had a maddening tendency to not be nearly so simple. Ferrari's had a habit of falling into mantraps - sometimes mantraps it's set itself. And this venue has more mantraps set than most - a Monaco for the new millennium with added stamina required. Two hours in intense humidity with constant acrobatic turns and near at hand walls to punish even small errors.

Still Sebastian Vettel to take pole and win seems a reasonable starting point of our expectations this weekend, and you can back him at evens to prevail on Saturday and at 11/8 to do so on Sunday. Seb's a local specialist as well and has won here four times and taken the same number of poles.

Italian GP Betting Preview - Just like old times?

F1 has in a sense gone full circle. Time was we could expect a Ferrari upturn for the Italian Grand Prix at Monza. As its home round, with everything that entails, the red team would turn up with a 'special'. For various reasons those days are in the past. But for the first Italian visit in a good while we nevertheless turn up this time with Ferrari emphatically the team to beat.

The view the rest will be getting of Ferrari?
Photo: Octane Photography

The Scuderia generally has been on top pace-wise in recent rounds, and in the Belgian stop-off last weekend - at a track just like Monza with plenty of full throttle sections - both Ferrari and Mercedes turned up with new power units and Ferrari remained at least as far ahead on that front as it had been before. Perhaps more so. Sebastian Vettel sailed past Lewis Hamilton on lap one as if he was parked on the way to a comfortable victory. Much to Hamilton's audible chagrin.

And as intimated this advantage will count for a lot at Monza, and the bookies have noticed judging by that they've made Vettel favourite for the pole and win. The odds still look pretty tempting as you'll near enough double your money if Vettel prevails, with 8/11 for him to get pole and 19/20 to win the race.

With this too you may be similarly tempted by the 8/13 available for Vettel's fellow Ferrari Kimi Raikkonen to finish on the podium. The grapevine has him being retained at the Scuderia for next year, and another Ferrari tradition is announcing drivers for the following year at Monza - so with this the Finn should be in a good mood. You can also get 3/5 on a Ferrari to win.

Belgian GP Betting Preview - Hard rain

Formula 1 reconvenes after a four-week summer break with the consideration at the front remaining familiar - victory in this weekend's Belgian Grand Prix at Spa looks in advance a matter primarily of Lewis Hamilton's Mercedes versus Sebastian Vettel's Ferrari.

Once again at the front it looks like it'll be a matter
 of Sebastian Vettel versus Lewis Hamilton
Photo: Octane Photography

Ferrari had the quickest car in the weeks before the break, and Vettel won at the last similar-ish challenge to Spa at Silverstone. That 70% of the Spa track is taken at full throttle should be to his benefit too as the Ferrari engine has also been mighty recently. But then again in this time for one reason or another - some their own doing; some not - Vettel and Ferrari haven't always converted their advantage to victory.

And this time the very thing that scuppered them in the last weekend before the break in Hungary is due to re-occur. Rain.

The bookies agree that Hamilton versus Vettel is a tough call as the pair have exactly the same odds to win and to take pole - respectively 6/4 and 11/8.

Hungarian GP Betting Preview - On the other hand...

Working out who is best to back for this weekend's Hungarian Grand Prix may be a matter of balancing a set of scales. Each of the big three teams have reasons to back them. And not to back them.

Will Red Bull be repeating its Monaco celebrations?
Photo: Octane Photography

We can start with Red Bull. The twisty Hungaroring track looks like it could be designed for its car, including that it will show up its horsepower deficit less than any other circuit on the calendar Monaco aside. Red Bull won in Monaco which is a track plenty liken to this one and likely would have had a one-two there without Max Verstappen binning it in Saturday morning practice.

The team clearly thinks this is a conspicuous chance to win too given how it stockpiled engine part penalties for Daniel Ricciardo in Germany to avoid the need to have anything like that here. The only trouble is its actual record at this track which is oddly poor. The team has only won here twice and one of those was a crazy rain-impacted race in 2014 wherein Ricciardo took the lead late on. Otherwise its solitary triumph was back in 2010.

German GP Betting Preview - Home where the hurt is?

We again start our betting preview with a lament. The usual one that F1, particularly at the front, has lately been both close and unpredictable. Even in the last round, at Silverstone, where we thought that it was obvious Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes country. It didn't work out that way.

Sebastian Vettel looks well poised - but his record
at Hockenheim is poor
Photo: Octane Photography

This time for the German Grand Prix at Hockenheim taking place this weekend we can add the lament that it's been two years and one major regulation change since F1 cars were last here. So there's not even much useful previous when seeking to identify betting value.

Still if recent rounds have taught us anything it is that Ferrari will be in the mix pretty much anywhere. It's gone well recently on similar tracks to this one, made up mainly of straights separated by short and sharp turns (such as Montreal and the Red Bull Ring). It possibly has the strongest engine these days too which will matter here as a large proportion of the lap is full throttle

There's only one problem, that homeboy Sebastian Vettel's record here is weirdly poor - his best (official) Hockenheim result is third and he's only ever led three laps at this circuit.

British GP Betting Preview - Not looking for a new England

We might think that we start this one with little hope. In our previous betting preview we bemoaned that predicting F1 outcomes is a perilous task right now, and then we had an Austrian race where what we got barely resembled what we reasonably anticipated at the start.

It's worth backing a Mercedes at Silverstone
Photo: Octane Photography

But that we're at Silverstone means the clouds part (unusually for Silverstone you might say) and we get a clear view. Because we have a striking consistent previous to go on.

Mercedes usually dominates here and Lewis Hamilton especially dominates - he's won his last four home rounds. And even with the Mercedes and Lewis trauma that went down in Austria likely the biggest implication was that Merc had stolen a march on the rest with its upgrade.

Therefore there's likely little point putting your money anywhere else for pole and win. And even so the odds for Hamilton to do these offer a pretty decent return - he can be backed at 4/5 to get pole and evens to win.

While if you really want to get behind the prospect of Lewis dominating then there are other ways you can bet on it. A pole, fastest lap and win triumvirate for any driver - i.e. not just Hamilton - can be backed at 11/4 and a pole winning margin of over two tenths can be backed at evens. Mercedes tends also to be strong in first practice and you can back Hamilton to top that session at 5/4.

Austrian GP Betting Preview - Ring of fire

F1 betting really is a perilous challenge right now, and heading into this weekend's Austrian Grand Prix is doesn't get easier.

Be prepared for another close fight between the
 'big three' teams at the Red Bull Ring
Photo: Octane Photography

The previous two F1 rounds haven't been too far removed from each other in terms of track demands - indeed neither are too far removed from the Red Bull Ring hosting us this weekend, long straights separated mainly by technical turns.

And yet - two rounds ago Sebastian Vettel and Ferrari trounced the pack and Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes was nowhere. Last time out they almost exactly swapped places.

It seems F1's way right now, that an accumulation of small and peculiar circumstances to that weekend - track layout, surface, tyre compounds, temperatures, and a myriad of team decisions made throughout - is enough to tilt the close fight at the front one way or another.

French GP Betting Preview - French fancy

As F1 betting calls go, they hardly get tougher than for the returning French Grand Prix this weekend. Partly as it's a Paul Ricard venue that F1 hasn't visited since 1990 (and was very different then in any case) so there is no local form to go on. Also it's been resurfaced for its return so any learning from recent testing there has an asterisk against it too. Plus recent rounds tell us that there is very little to choose between 'big three' of Ferrari, Mercedes and Red Bull - and that outcomes can be decided in the margins that are hard to predict in advance. A mistake here, an inspired qualifying lap there...

Montreal confirmed that Sebastian Vettel and Ferrari
lead the way in 2018
Photo: Octane Photography

Sebastian Vettel's pole and win last time out at Montreal reminded us that he and the Ferrari have been 2018's most potent combination - something indeed borne out by fastest lap averages from the season so far (even if it hasn't always been borne out by results). And the Paul Ricard track doesn't look all that far removed from Montreal's - lengthy straights separated mainly by technical turns and switch-backs.

Despite this old habits die hard for the bookies as Lewis Hamilton remains their favourite to win this time at 13/8. But given everything the better value is with Vettel, at 9/5 for the win and 7/5 for the pole (Hamilton's odds for pole are 6/4).

Mercedes as we know had a tough time in Canada which came as quite the shock to all concerned. Hamilton's team-mate Valtteri Bottas indeed has on this basis declared it a "fact" that Mercedes is not the favourite this weekend.

Canadian GP Betting Preview - Isle of Lewis?

Races at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve around Montreal's Ile Notre Dame are synonymous with madcap action and results that are hard to predict. Since 2000 not much more than one race in three here has been won from pole. While as usual in 2018 a coherent case can be made in advance for - and against - the prospects of each of the big three teams of Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull.

Montreal wins usually mean one person in particular
Photo: Octane Photography

But on another level a Montreal race is a straightforward call. As Lewis Hamilton has won here six times including the last three. He is very much a local specialist - bravery on the brakes and hustling a car through chicanes with no room for error is just his thing. He tends to beam throughout his Canadian visits.

There is the question of whether Mercedes can master the three softest tyre compounds this weekend as it very much didn't in Monaco, but on the other hand it came to Montreal 12 months ago under a similar cloud and in the event took a comfortable 1-2.

And luckily these sort of doubts mean Hamilton's odds to prevail are a bit longer than they might have been - 7/5 for him to win and 13/8 for the pole both look good.

Monaco GP Betting Preview - Best to back the Bulls?

Monaco is different. For good and for ill.

There are reasons to think Red Bull will
be on top this weekend
Photo: Octane Photography

One can never underestimate Ferrari and Mercedes of course, but in many people's eyes Monaco's difference extends to Red Bull becoming the favourite to prevail this weekend. The tight track should suit it down to the ground and not show up its power deficit as much as other circuits do. The Bull also was quickest in the bellwether tight final sector at Barcelona last time out.

It's not favourite in the eyes of the bookies though, and this may present an opportunity. Daniel Ricciardo is third favourite to win - behind usual suspects Sebastian Vettel and Lewis Hamilton - at 9/2 while Max Verstappen can be backed at 5/1. You can also back a Red Bull of either stripe to win at 15/8.

If you fancy a less ambitious bet then either Red Bull driver can be backed to finish on the podium at reasonable odds too: Ricciardo at 6/5 and Verstappen at 5/4. You can back both to get on the podium at 15/4.

Spanish GP Betting Preview - After the watershed

The Spanish Grand Prix this weekend is a watershed - from a betting point of view at least. After three rounds in which he looked the fastest all else being equal the bookies have twigged and Sebastian Vettel is now favourite for pole and win, ending a lengthy run of Lewis Hamilton having the shortest odds.

For the first time in a long time Sebastian Vettel
has the shortest odds to prevail
Photo: Octane Photography

They bookies might be counter-cyclical though, as Spain could be a good place for Mercedes to bounce back. The long turns and harder tyre compounds than usual should suit Mercedes and go some way to solve its rubber warm-up problems of the last three rounds.

Still Ferrari and Sebastian Vettel have this year been near-perennials at the front on Saturday and Sunday and are not to be written off readily. The odds reflect the close call, Vettel is 17/11 to get the pole and 13/8 to win; Lewis Hamilton's respective odds are 2/1 and 7/4.

Something the bookies haven't quite twigged on though is the form of their respective team-mates Valtteri Bottas and Kimi Raikkonen - form that is not reflected in their points totals. Both have tempting long odds to win or to get on the podium this weekend. Bottas can be backed at 9/1 to win and 6/5 to finish in the top three, while the respective odds for Raikkonen are 12/1 and 7/5.