Austrian Grand Prix Betting Preview: F1 is Back in July

By Takayuki Suzuki - https://www.flickr.com/photos/
78475089@N02/49028922522/, CC BY-SA 2.0,
https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=83879385

As most F1 fans are well aware, the 2020 season will finally get underway with the Austrian Grand Prix taking place from July 3 to 5. The action will take place at the Red Bull Ring, Spielberg, and both fans and teams will be raring to get started after months of waiting around.

There will, of course, be two grand prix races at Spielberg this season, with another race – the Styrian Grand Prix – scheduled to take place a week later. You can get more details on the plans for the new F1 season, but, for this betting preview, we are going to concentrate on the first race of the season. Let’s dive in:

Race Winner
It won’t surprise you to learn that Lewis Hamilton is the race favourite, with a price of 9/5 (all odds here sourced from MansionBet UK) to get off to a winning start in Spielberg. That’s quite a big price when you consider Hamilton is odds-on to win the drivers’ championship. However, it’s probably reflective of the fact that Hamilton tends to start the season slowly by his standards. In fact, you will have to go back to 2015 to find a time when Hamilton won a season opener. Will that apply in Spielberg?

Bookmakers really believe that Max Verstappen can get close to Hamilton this season, and at 2/1 he is almost neck and neck with the Brit in this race. The Red Bull Ring is seen as home turf for Verstappen and his Red Bull team, and he did win the race back in 2018 and 2019. Elsewhere, Charles Leclerc is priced at 4/1, Sebastian Vettel at 11/2 and Valtteri Bottas at 6/1.

Podium Position 
You can get the likes of Hamilton and Verstappen at short prices to finish in the podium positions in this race, but an interesting candidate for punters is Red Bull’s Alexander Albon. Verstappen’s team-mate has never finished in the top three before during his short career, but he has the goods to start delivering on his promise. He is cited at 3/1 for a podium finish, and it looks like an interesting bet to make, especially if you consider Red Bull’s insider knowledge of the circuit. He is a much larger 28/1 if you fancy the upset of an outright win.

Fastest Qualifier 
Similar to the race winner odds, the markets for pole position have Hamilton at 7/4 and Verstappen at 9/5. Intriguingly, Bottas is the next in line at 7/2. That tells you that bookmakers have faith in the Mercedes car to deliver fast laps, but that they still believe the jury is out on the Finn having the nous to consistently deliver race wins like his team-mate.

Winning Team 
Mercedes is the firm favourite for delivering a win on the day, with bookies factoring in the chances of either Hamilton or Bottas taking the chequered flag at the end of the race. It’s hard to look beyond the price offered of 11/10 for Mercedes. However, if you do believe Albon has a chance this season, then the 9/5 offered for Red Bull is only marginally smaller than the price for a Verstappen win. That might be the value bet.

Artes Max from Spain / CC BY-SA
(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)

Overall Thoughts 
Whether we like it or not, this is not going to business as usual for F1. Starting the season in the middle of summer is not ideal for any team so you can expect some surprises. As such, it might be the opportune moment to take a risk on your betting strategy, perhaps by overlooking the usual candidates. Whatever happens, it will be fantastic to see those cars line up on the grid once more.

All odds were correct at the time of writing.

The Evolution Of F1 Circuits, by Leasing Options

As we roll on towards the latter stages of the Formula 1 calendar, Leasing Options thought it'd take a moment to delve into the history of some of the circuits on the calendar that have been raced on for decades to see how much they've changed since they were built.

New Motorsport Week article: Why the Austrian Grand Prix provided F1’s salvation

Photo: Octane Photography

"Crisis? What crisis?" One thrilling race later and suddenly modern-spec Formula 1 doesn't seem so bad after all. F1, like drivers, is only as good as its last race it seems.

And yes, it's true that the Austrian Grand Prix did not in fact provide an answer to many of F1's fundamental and familiar ills. But it did hint at some of the solutions.

You can have a read of my take on all of that for Motorsport Week via this link: https://www.motorsportweek.com/news/id/23511

Inside Line F1 Podcast - F1 Needs To Apologise To Valtteri Bottas

Every sport needs to build and worship its heroes, the current flavour for Formula 1 being Lewis Hamilton. But Formula 1 took one step too far when it asked Valtteri Bottas, Hamilton's title rival, to sing praises for the reigning world champion not once, but twice. Enough, lads. Let's respect the title rivalry between the two Mercedes drivers.

In this week's episode of the Inside Line F1 Podcast, we wonder if Esteban Ocon will eventually have to settle for a Renault in 2020 after having Mercedes dreams. Could Ocon-Renault lead to an exit from the sport for Nico Hulkenberg? By what races this year would Mercedes and Lewis Hamilton wrap up their titles? Who would you believe more when it comes to 'how tough it is to race a Formula 1 car?', Max Verstappen or Lewis Hamilton-Romain Grosjean? Finally, should Mercedes continue racing in Formula 1 despite not having anything left to prove? And of course, did you know that Formula 1 actually played 'Happy Birthday' on the podium instead of the national anthem for the winning driver in one of the previous editions of the Austrian Grand Prix? Tune in!

(Season 2019, Episode 25)
Subscribe to the Inside Line F1 Podcast on iTunes, audioBoom (RSS feed) and Google Podcasts for your weekly dose of Formula 1 humour

Motor Verso F1 2018 Season Summary - Austrian Grand Prix review

Photo: Octane Photography

The ever-expanding Motor Verso F1 summary written by me has now been updated with my best attempt to sum up a thrilling and corkscrew - and surprising - Austrian Grand Prix.

It also contains my French Grand Prix review from last week, now at the bottom of the article, which I believe I neglected to mention.

You can check all of it out here: https://www.motorverso.com/2018-f1-summary/

Do check out the Motor Verso site too; you'll find motoring news, car reviews and features - the team on the site carry out week-long test drives of the latest cars - as well as photos and videos of the machines.

Austrian GP Report - The hills are alive

As the sage Mark Gallagher noted after this one, "Ferrari will be waking up this morning dazed by how they are leading both the drivers' and constructors' championships; Mercedes at how they are not."

Max Verstappen was an unlikely - and worthy - winner
Photo: Octane Photography

Gallagher's assessment indicates that this Austrian Grand Prix was no ordinary Grand Prix - indeed it was one of those wherein advance expectation and actual outcome barely were on nodding terms.

It started though looking like it would be extremely ordinary - Mercedes armed with a technical upgrade strode a way clear and locked out the grid's front row. All spoke of two races in one with those not in silver aiming for third place at most. Then when Mercedes maintained its one-two after some first lap frolics, Lewis Hamilton ahead and poleman Valtteri Bottas boxing his way back to second after a poor get-go, that indeed looked like that.

And yet. Mercedes's empire fell within a single lap.

Austrian GP Betting Preview - Ring of fire

F1 betting really is a perilous challenge right now, and heading into this weekend's Austrian Grand Prix is doesn't get easier.

Be prepared for another close fight between the
 'big three' teams at the Red Bull Ring
Photo: Octane Photography

The previous two F1 rounds haven't been too far removed from each other in terms of track demands - indeed neither are too far removed from the Red Bull Ring hosting us this weekend, long straights separated mainly by technical turns.

And yet - two rounds ago Sebastian Vettel and Ferrari trounced the pack and Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes was nowhere. Last time out they almost exactly swapped places.

It seems F1's way right now, that an accumulation of small and peculiar circumstances to that weekend - track layout, surface, tyre compounds, temperatures, and a myriad of team decisions made throughout - is enough to tilt the close fight at the front one way or another.

Red Bull Ring Preview - Mountain mist

F1 has developed a season. A season within a season if you like.

The end of the season - F1 visits the Red Bull Ring
Photo: Octane Photography

We had Montreal, then Paul Ricard. And now this weekend we have the Red Bull Ring in Austria.

These circuits have a family resemblance - lengthy straights are predominant and are separated mainly by technical turns - though like Paul Ricard the Red Bull Ring has some quicker corners too. Straightline speed, braking stability and traction are the chief discriminators.

Trouble is that even so it doesn't really help us predict what will happen this weekend. In Montreal Ferrari was well on top of Mercedes; in Paul Ricard they almost exactly swapped positions. Last year's Austrian visit doesn't help either, which was won for Valtteri Bottas's Merc but only just from Sebastian Vettel's Ferrari. There was only four hundredths between them in qualifying.

Then there's where we are. This circuit often serves up fare of the non-predictable kind.

Austrian Grand Prix review for Motor Verso - Bottas joins the party

Perhaps F1 squeezed all of its current quota of frolics into the last round in Azerbaijan. As in Austria, despite reasons to expect thrills the race provided very few of them. Not before the very end anyway.

Photo: Octane Photography

But still there was plenty to admire about how Valtteri Bottas dominated for much of the distance, then - in a spooky parallel with his previous win in Russia - was unflinching as Sebastian Vettel chased him down in the final throes.

And the race could be significant too, as while this season we've relished our two's company world championship fight, Bottas may be turning it into a crowd of three...

Here's my take on it all for Motor Verso: http://www.motorverso.com/austrian-gp-2017-report-bottas-joins-party/

Do check out the Motor Verso site too; you'll find motoring news, car reviews and features - the team on the site carry out week-long test drives of the latest cars - as well as photos and videos of the machines.

Austrian GP Report - Bottas barks

It was, as Sherlock Holmes might have it, the dog that didn't bark. Rarely had we entered a race with so many apparent variables as today's in Austria. Lewis Hamilton from starting eighth would come through the pack. The higher temperatures made tyre life - particularly via blistering - unknown. Some would have to switch to the soft compound having hardly, or in some cases having never, run them this weekend. Rain was around too, a few putting the likelihood at 80%.

Just like in Russia, Valtteri Bottas took a fine win with
Sebastian Vettel breathing down his neck
Photo: Octane Photography

None of these things happened. Instead we got a study in domination from poleman Valtteri Bottas. Fine it was too.

He started as he meant to go on. His race get-go was so good that some thought it was too good, and the stewards investigated a jump start. Second-place starter Sebastian Vettel considered the Finn bang to rights. "From my point of view, he jumped the start - I was sure that he did," said Vettel later. "It looked like it from inside the car, but it's not for me to judge at the end of the day."

Simply not moving before the lights go out ain't necessarily enough; if you're moving within two tenths of a second of it - beyond human capability it is thought - you'll still get penalised for an anticipated launch. And Bottas clocked it at... 0.201secs. It appears instead it simply was the perfect start.

Red Bull Ring Qualifying - Hamlet with the Prince

It looked like qualifying would be Hamlet without the Prince. But we had a Prince, just not the one anticipated. The pretender stepped up.

Valtteri Bottas, it turned out, was the prince of qualifying
Photo: Octane Photography

Yesterday around Austria's Red Bull Ring Lewis Hamilton looked on a plateau. Easily quickest in all circumstances it seemed. Enjoying a Mercedes that seems now shorn of its diva leanings; happy on all tyre compounds.

Yet after the day's running we found out it was not quite as it seemed, as gearbox damage from Baku (no, not due to that) meant that wherever Lewis 'qualified' in Austria he'd add five to the number.

Thus the qualifying hour became a lot about his team mate Valtteri Bottas. The onus was on him to tape up pole instead, not only for himself but to help his colleague.

He did his bit. Lewis didn't. In the first goes of quali's final part the Finn posted a decent 1m 04.251 to top the charts, though his lap was by no means perfect (he did get a nice tow from a Force India however and aced the second part of the lap). Lewis after a scrappy run posted a 1m 04.424. Worse it allowed the perennial Sebastian Vettel to sneak between them.

Inside Line F1 Podcast - Ferrari's Most Crucial Race Of 2017 Yet?

Ferrari arrive under pressure at the Red Bull Ring - one of the most beautiful circuits on the Formula 1 calendar. Has the FIA evened out the supposed bias towards Ferrari? On one hand, it's let go Sebastian Vettel fairly leniently (says the public!) and on the other hand, it's clamped down 'oil burn' which most rivals believe has slowed down Ferrari. The general perception is that Ferrari is back to chasing Mercedes; so is the 2017 Austrian Grand Prix Ferrari's most crucial race of the season yet?

In this week's episode of the Inside Line F1 Podcast, we applaud the FIA's humour on the serious investigation of Vettel's transgressions in Baku and we wonder whose word we trust more - Toto Wolff's or Eddie Jordan's? With nearly a quarter of a million pounds after his McLaren exit, should Ron Dennis buy-out Force India - or the to-be-named Force One Formula One Team? Finally, Robert Kubica's heroic comeback will be granted super-heroic status if it is with the scarlet red Ferrari instead of the taxi-coloured Renault. Tune in!

Subscribe to the Inside Line F1 Podcast on iTunes and audioBoom for your weekly dose of Formula 1 humour.

(Season 2017, Episode 25)

Red Bull Ring Preview - Changing of the seasons

F1 has developed a season. A bit like the tennis calendar has a grass court season (though that phrase always amuses me given it seems to consist solely of Wimbledon and some warm-up tournaments for Wimbledon). It now is in a mini-run of tracks cut from the same cloth.

The Red Bull Ring has become a popular stop-off
Photo: Octane Photography

We had Montreal, then Baku, and the run is completed this weekend by the Red Bull Ring in Austria. These circuits each are made up mainly of straights, some long, separately almost exclusively by slow turns. Point and squirt, as we used to say. Straightline speed, braking stability and traction are the chief discriminators.

The image of the Red Bull Ring has over time shifted about as frequently as its name. When F1 first rocked up in 1997, to what was then called the A1-Ring, many struggled to forgive it for trampling the magnificent Österreichring underfoot. In sharp contrast the new version seemed then achingly tepid.

It dropped off the calendar after 2003, but then Red Bull money - as evidenced in the current nomenclature - brought it back for 2014. And we then got a demonstration that time is a great healer, or else that things are judged in their context. Suddenly the track had developed a charm in the age of the cavernous Tilke-drome (ironic as this was in fact Hermann Tilke's first F1 effort). It seems now to be a firm fan's favourite.

New Grand Prix Times article: What did Austria’s kerb-hopping tell us about modern F1 drivers?

The single weekend's gathering of F1 folks in Austria's Spielberg region just passed packed in an astonishing number of distinct pieces of drama, perhaps as many as we'd expect across a whole swathe of a season. One of them looked for a time like it would dominate though, at least until Seb Vettel's tyre went pop and certainly until, you know, that on the final lap.

Photo: Octane Photography

That is, yellow 'baguette' kerbs on the outside of many turns and good for breaking F1 cars if you ran one over them. Drivers it seemed were maddeningly reluctant to twig this seemingly basic premise though, and as a result no fewer than four suspension breakages across Friday and Saturday were witnessed.

Many observers were exasperated at this, concluding 'why don't they just stay off the kerbs?' Simples. Some went further and thought it all said something unflattering about the decadent modern F1 pilot. Not like in the good old days.

In my latest Grand Prix Times article though I argue that the opposite is true. That the kerb-hopping showed F1 drivers' fundamental nature, and one that likely has been the way for decades. One that is gladiatorial. You can have a read here: http://www.grandprixtimes.com/news/id/12386

Austrian Grand Prix review for Motor Verso - Living up to your reputation

Well, we did say to expect the unusual in Austria. Though surely F1's weekend Red Bull Ring gathering just past, and not least its last lap crescendo, surpasses even what went before here. And then some.

Photo: Octane Photography

Curiosity was all around in Austria this time, and started early with repeated suspension breakages then a wet-to-dry end to the qualifying session on Saturday which did its bit to set up the jumbled drama. Underlining the curiosity even the cream of the Mercs rising to the top in the race wasn't all that confidently expected. Neither was for the most part that Nico Rosberg would end up ahead of Lewis Hamilton as the laps ticked down towards the race's end. Which is when the real fun started...

I do my best to squeeze the pertinent bits into my latest Motor Verso race review. You can have a read here: http://www.motorverso.com/austrian-gp-2016-review-living-reputation/

Do check out the Motor Verso site too; you'll find motoring news, car reviews and features - the team on the site carry out week-long test drives of the latest cars - as well as photos and videos of the machines.

Inside Line F1 Podcast - Mercedes, No Team Orders Please!

The 2016 Austrian Grand Prix was the best advertisement for Formula 1 - wheel to wheel action, tyre strategy and a fair share of controversy! Are Mercedes trying to protect Nico Rosberg by blaming the issue on brake-by-wire? As far as we know, brake-by-wire does not affect the steering wheel! And why were Mercedes hell-bent on making Hamilton lose by strategy or slower pitstops? Every time the pressure piles on, Rosberg eventually succumbs. Definitely not the mental make-up of a champion - does Rosberg deserve to be World Champion?

While Mercedes contemplates team orders, we tell you why it's a terrible idea. If Mercedes were to be inspired by Red Bull Racing, they would have demoted Rosberg to Manor and promoted Pascal Wehrlein in his place - a gift for his resilient P10 too! Pirelli gifted Sebastian Vettel a tyre blowout for his birthday. Sure he would have been happier blowing out candles instead. Kimi Raikkonen had some unexpected champagne, funny that he's having his second wedding before his second world championship. Max Verstappen continues to be everyone's favourite (ours too!) sweeping away the Driver of the Day awards.

Jenson Button's P6 would've seemed like victory to McLaren-Honda. The Japanese manufacturer is considering investing in a Formula E program. Is this to hide from their Formula 1 miseries? We tell you more.

Back-to-back races means that the British Grand Prix is coming up this weekend! Is anyone willing to bet against Lewis Hamilton at his home race? We aren't - Hammer Time awaits, we say! Our prediction? Since Formula 1 loves revenge, Nico Rosberg will be booed on the podium - if he makes it there, that is.

Tune in!

(Season 2016, Episode 23)

Red Bull Ring Qualifying - Circus act in the Ring

Despite the madcap appearances, it could really have been called in advance. Well, in a broad sense anyway if not in the specifics. Mercedes was meant to dominate at Austria's Red Bull Ring this weekend; really rationally it should have done. But this is a track where, in time-honoured tradition, things are rarely that simple. They weren't that simple for today's qualifying hour. On reflection, they were indeed much less simple even than that.

In a crazy qualifying hour of a crazy weekend, Lewis
Hamilton eventually took the pole
Photo: Octane Photography

A wet but drying final session to set the grid, ensuring that the timing display resembled the whirring display of a fruit machine. One with those known for bravery in such conditions getting well in among the usual front-runners. All the while grid penalties for a few big guns were somewhere at the back of minds, to be factored into calculations. All the while it was borne in mind too that this is Austria...

Some of the what-it-is-about these Spielberg visits can be explained: it's a short lap made up essentially of seven turns which ensures a tight grid, as does that this track, in its layout and altitude, isn't too sensitive to downforce which the normal pace-setters tend to have more of. The tight turns at the end of long straights draw plenty of errors. Sudden arrivals of rain are known here, and one of those before vital Q3 added plenty to today's fun. Yet even with these some matters simply are intangible, almost like there is something - other than precipitation or altitude that is - in the local air.

Inside Line F1 Podcast - Will The Real Lewis Hamilton Please Stand Up

If he has any hopes of winning his third championship on the trot, the real Lewis Hamilton needs to stand up - show us the quick racer he is, minus the distractions (music, movies and Penelope Cruz). Meanwhile Niki Lauda was spotted sharing ice cream with Nico Rosberg, where was Lewis in all of this? Maybe they made Lewis wait in the car!

Hamilton is smartly planning his retirement with Mercedes - he will be building supercars and doing demos, basically becoming the next David Coulthard? With autonomous cars likely to be the biggest threat to Formula 1, guess all drivers need retirement plans (not just Fernando Alonso!).

Apart from hanging out with Lauda, Rosberg has been doing various other things we thought are Hamilton's speciality. This includes hanging out at exotic destinations (Ibiza), posing with private jets for no apparent reason, fanboy moments with Hollywood stars and pissing off Formula 1's sponsors. Hopefully, the next Lewis-inspired move he pulls off is winning a World Championship.

Strange things are happening in Formula One. Hamilton and Rosberg's relationship has never been better, thanks to some dubious bonding in a Monaco swimming pool. The poster boy of capitalism, Bernie Ecclestone, is planning to do away with bonus payments for the big teams. The silly season rumours continue to fly, will Kimi stay or go?

More speed but less races, should we be excited about the 2017 season? Or is it all a marketing hoax? Britain may have voted to Brexit, but when will Formula One get the big Ecc-xit? Mclaren-Honda and Fernando Alonso continue to make a joke of themselves on and off track and we are happy to laugh along. With the 2016 Austrian Grand Prix coming up, we predict that the Red Bull Ring might need to be renamed as Mercedes Ring.

Tune in!

(Season 2016, Episode 22)

Red Bull Ring Preview - Last day of the season

F1, probably without meaning to, has developed a season. That is, a season within a season. A bit like tennis has a grass court season (though the phrase always amuses me given it seems to consist solely of Wimbledon and some warm-up tournaments for Wimbledon), F1 now is in the midst of a mini-run of tracks all rather cut from the same cloth.

The Red Bull Ring is the latest in a
run of 'point and squirt' challenges
Photo: Octane Photography

We had Montreal, then the new-fangled Baku circuit, and the run is completed this weekend with the Red Bull Ring in Austria. These are each made up mainly of straights, some long, separately almost exclusively by slow turns. Straightline speed, braking stability and traction are the chief discriminators. It's not a phrase I've heard in a while, but the parlance once called such challenges 'point and squirt'. So therefore it seems we are now reaching the last part of F1's point and squirt season. Doesn't really have a ring to it, admittedly.

Also showing how things can change, the image of the Red Bull Ring has over time shifted about as frequently as its name. Which is a lot. Of course, many of those of a certain age (which sadly I just sneak into) struggled for a time to forgive the place. Not so much for what it was, but rather - as was the case with the 'new' Nurburgring also - for what it replaced. In Austria's case it was the magnificent, undulating and fearsome Österreichring that graced the F1 calendar between 1970 and 1987, that was trampled underfoot by the new creation. While the beautiful Styrian scenery remained of course the A1-Ring - as it was re-named when the sport returned in 1997 - in contrast was achingly up-to-date, sanitised and standard. If only they'd built the new track somewhere else, we thought, perhaps up the hillside as ironically enough they did when the Österreichring itself was created in the stead of the even older Zeltweg venue.

Latest episode of A Racer's Experience - the Austrian Grand Prix

In the latest A Racer's Experience episode there is a treat for you as with Matt Nicholas and me talking about last Sunday's Austrian Grand Prix we're joined by NBC's F1 producer and co-host of much of their racing coverage Jason Swales.

As you'd imagine his contributions to the discussion are excellent. We talk about among other things the Styrian race, the discussions about F1 penalties and the power unit regulations, Kimi Raikkonen's future as well as what is special about the British Grand Prix that awaits us next.

You can have a watch below, our slot begins at about 27:30.



The episode also features Zak Caban talking about the V8 Supercars Races 13-15 in the Hidden Valley, and to David Addison about Formula 3 and his weekend in Croft for the British Touring Car Championship.