Inside Line F1 Podcast - Vettel Missing A Mentor At Ferrari?

Sebastian Vettel could be missing a mentor at Ferrari. In fact, could Ferrari do better with a 'real' racer at the helm of affairs? We explain our view in this week's episode of the Inside Line F1 Podcast by comparing the pressures between a Formula 1 driver and the CEO of a Fortune 500 company.

Photo: Octane Photography

Also, we wonder how things could've turned out had Lewis Hamilton lost the World Championship in 2008; would Timo Glock be remembered a little less? With Formula 1 teams promoting young (or really young!) drivers in this era - has Formula 1 become a development series for drivers too? Finally, will Hamilton break his no-win-after-championship duck this weekend in Brazil? Tune in!

(Season 2018, Episode 38)

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Here is what's in store for you this week:

0:00-3:00: That time of the year when remember Timo Glock; WHAT IF Felipe Massa would've won the Formula 1 World Championship in 2008?

3:00-6:00: Sebastian Vettel looks like he's missing a mentor at Ferrari - we explain our point

6:00-8:00: Has Formula 1 become a development series for drivers too? Also, can Ferrari seriously win the Constructors' Championship this season?

08:00-10:00: Can Lewis Hamilton attempt a switch to and win with Ferrari? Basically, do what Michael Schumacher attempted to do in his era

10:00-13:00: Haas should be disappointed if they finish 5th in 2018, agree or disagree? Can Williams survive without the Stroll money in 2019?

13:00-15:00: Should Formula 1 cars now have digital rear view mirrors? And, Lucien's 'Moments in Time' section for the upcoming Brazilian Grand Prix! 14:45

20:00-end: Lewis Hamilton is yet to win a race after winning a World Championship; can he win this weekend in Brazil?

P.S.: We won't have an episode next week; remember to tune back in the week before the 2018 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix!

Mexico City Preview: Unfinished business

So reports of the championship battle's death were greatly exaggerated. Or rather, they were premature by a week. Lewis Hamilton heading into the Mexican Grand Prix this weekend still has a little bit of work to do.

Barring the unusual, Lewis Hamilton will clinch the
world championship this weekend
Photo: Octane Photography

Despite everything though Austin's result from last Sunday ratcheted up the certainty of his fifth drivers' title. Now he needs only five points - or to put it another way a seventh place - to make it official. Surely barring a non-finish or very severe delay he'll get it this time. Even a small delay shouldn't stop him - we've seen time and again that these days members of the six-car Class A can polish off all of Class B with minimum fuss.

And perhaps it's just as well for Hamilton and Mercedes that the mathematics are straightforward, as at this Magdalena Mixhuca parkland venue in Mexico City it emphatically cannot expect a walk in the park.

Montreal Preview - In the spirit of Gilles

If you're looking for an adjective to sum up the F1 fraternity - participants and observers alike - then 'quarrelsome' may be near the top of your list.

Inimitable Montreal
Photo: Octane Photography

It applies to views on the venues too. But there is one on which there is close to unanimity and in the positive - the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve in Montreal for the Canadian Grand Prix. The latest visit to which is this weekend.

There are many reasons for its popularity. Madcap action is a positive expectation here. The layout ensures plenty of overtaking. The nearby walls can and frequently have punished errors. It even has its own 'Wall of Champions' which as the name suggests has ensnared the best. It is a place that rewards the brave.

Safety cars and carbon shards are a common feature, and these also have turned many-a Montreal race onto its head. Outcomes here are not so easy to predict - since the turn of the millennium only a little over one Montreal race in three has been won from pole.

My Top 10 F1 Drivers of 2017: The Rest…

Here are my views on those F1 drivers from 2017 who didn't make my top 10 ranking from a few days ago, which can be read here.

Photo: Octane Photography

The most conspicuous absence from the top ten is Kimi Raikkonen, for whom things somehow never quite came together in 2017. Frequently he looked to have pace but it tended to fall away at crucial moments, not least in the final throes of qualifying including just about every time after the summer break. In many race results too you'd look at the chasm-like gap between the Ferraris and wonder how exactly it came to that. Still pole in Monaco is a feather in the cap and with more benign team strategy he would have won twice. Also in mitigation some of Kimi's race strategies stretched credulity. Once again Sebastian Vettel couldn't live with him through Silverstone's sweeps. But even so it seems the main reason Ferrari keeps him on is that he doesn't offend Seb. On any count.

Going through the rest in the final drivers' table order brings us first to Felipe Massa, who got an unlikely second swansong this year. He started and ended the season superbly, while between times he tended to be solid. Fairly or otherwise the sense persisted though that he remained a few tenths off the ultimate pace; at the very least with a team mate struggling so obviously it was hard to judge the popular Brazilian. In the end he jumped (again) from F1 before Williams – still dithering – could push him, and as intimated he at least went out on a high.

Abu Dhabi GP Report - Living down to expectations

And so Abu Dhabi lived down to expectations. F1 in 2017 went out rather with a whimper.

Valtteri Bottas ended the year with a win
Photo: Octane Photography

As expected the Mercedes were in a different race. As expected in a Yas Marina race a lot hung on the start, and that didn't change the order. Poleman Valtteri Bottas led from his Mercedes team mate Lewis Hamilton. There wasn't much to be done afterwards. They finished just like that.

As if to underline the general point, the entire top 12 circulated in grid order for the whole of the 15 lap opening stint. And it felt that way watching on.

Still it didn't appear mere formation flying from the Mercs. Lewis always seemed to be pushing and indeed Sebastian Vettel next up was left a whole 22 seconds adrift of the warring pair. More typical of this track it all reflected that cars struggle to get near each other.

Lewis kept trying, got fairly close at points. But a fastest lap from Bottas with four to go, then another a couple of laps later, extended his lead to over four seconds, and that was that.

Brazilian GP Report - Vettel's victory brings Ferrari fillip

On one level it seemed so simple. Valtteri Bottas's Mercedes was starting this Brazilian Grand Prix on pole, but Sebastian Vettel's Ferrari next up would be happier in race conditions, particularly as the temperature had shot up since the cool of qualifying. It would be a matter of whether he could get by.

Sebastian Vettel took a controlled victory
Photo: Octane Photography

Particularly too as Lewis Hamilton after his qualifying prang then his team replacing various engine bits would start his Merc from the pit lane.

Vettel indeed got by Bottas off the line, not so much from a better launch but a better second phase - with less wheelspin - and sliding up the inside of the Merc at turn one.

"Initially I had a very good getaway and then I had a bit of wheelspin and thought I'd missed my chance," Seb noted later.

"I think Valtteri was struggling even more off the line so I had a chance to squeeze down the inside, I think I surprised him a bit."

This was the basis of his victory. But also this is Interlagos. Things are rarely that simple here.

Interlagos Qualifying - Bottas steps into the breach

Interlagos's reputation lives. The place where things happen - however unforeseen.

Valtteri Bottas stepped up when his team mate stepped out
Photo: Octane Photography

Today's Brazilian Grand Prix qualifying session contained just the latest manifestation. Take the guy who has just claimed his latest drivers' title of four and barely missed a beat in doing so. The guy also that following practice was firm favourite for pole. Who has 72 of the things to his name.

He only went and binned it in the opening seconds - after getting a swapper on at the fast Ferradura turn his Mercedes buried deep in the barriers.

Thus Lewis Hamilton will start tomorrow's race from the back. Thus also qualifying almost immediately had its most potent protagonist removed.

Lewis seemed sanguine afterwards, but equally wasn't full of explanation about what occurred. "It shows we're all human and things happen," he mumbled.

Brazilian GP Betting Preview - Brazil nuts?

You know what they say about crises and opportunities. Brazilian Grands Prix at Interlagos may bring an F1 gambler out in a cold sweat, given that it's a place where anything goes down. Even more so than Monaco.

Might it be Ferrari and Red Bull on top again?
Photo: Octane Photography

But with it comes perhaps opportunities to win big, and maybe specifically so this time. Mercedes has been worried about this one apparently and not just because of the Sao Paulo track's idiom. It fears, it is said, that the twisty middle sector will suit Red Bull and Ferrari more. Plus while Interlagos's altitude isn't quite that of Mexico City it's still something and we saw in Mexico last time out that the silver car can be vulnerable when having to pile downforce on in such conditions.

And the bookies haven't quite twigged, still making Lewis Hamilton firm favourite for pole and win. The odds on Sebastian Vettel at 19/5 to claim race victory and 4/1 to get the pole look very generous - particularly the latter as in Mexico Seb showed that he remains a qualifying master even if his car isn't entirely a stick-on for pole.

Interlagos Preview - Not so dead rubber

There is something about 'dead rubber' F1 races. That the titles are decided doesn't necessarily mean a lack of drama. On the contrary, they often can provide more entertainment than the multitude of rounds beforehand that decided the honours.

Inimitable Interlagos
By Eduardo Guarizo Pimentel - Formula 1, CC BY 2.0,
https://commons.wikimedia.org/
w/index.php?curid=60467261

Partly it's atmosphere, most of the usual rancour departs with the title tension. Partly it's that those without a drive for the following year have to make sure they distinguish themselves. And partly, conversely, those for whom the pressure is off simply can go for it.

Some of the very best races in F1 history fall into this camp - Monza in 1971, Suzuka in 2005...

And then there's where this particular dead rubber is taking place.

Interlagos, the venue for this weekend's Brazilian Grand Prix, has in recent decades become an F1 calendar outlier - a throwback to the sort of venue that was once common. Here the walls and (numerous, passionate) fans remain close, the facilities remain cramped and rustic, and the driving challenge remains grand.

Mexican GP Report - Taking the long route

Lewis Hamilton clinched his fourth world title in the Mexican Grand Prix. This you'll have got short odds on. I wouldn't however like to say what odds you'd have got on how we got there. But ultimately that he got there was all that matters.

Lewis Hamilton, via a haphazard route,
claimed his fourth world title
Photo: Octane Photography

Whatever can be said about F1, and motorsport, it always carries a possibility that things can look very different in a blink. And it hardly gets more unrecognisable than after one lap of this race: championship protagonist one Sebastian Vettel was second last; championship protagonist two Lewis Hamilton last.

At the end of the long run to the opening complex they were side-by-side contesting the lead, joined by a certain Max Verstappen making them three-wide. Max as is his way channelled a perfect level of aggression to elbow his way to the front, and amid the uproar Seb's front wing made contact with Lewis's right rear tyre.

Despite the odd internet conspiracy theory - Niki Lauda was critical of Seb too - it was hard to attribute too much blame.

But whatever Lewis's tyre was punctured and Seb had to replace his wing. Thus we had the odd sight of the key pair touring gingerly into the pits at the end of lap one.

US GP Report - Familiarisation session

It seemed terribly familiar. That's because it was.

Lewis Hamilton further cemented his
latest title with a crushing win
Photo: Octane Photography

Lewis Hamilton took his fifth Austin win from six in this US Grand Prix; his sixth US win from seven. And his sixth win from the last eight rounds anywhere.

Thus his fourth world title is further cemented. Short of Sebastian Vettel outscoring him by 17 that will be confirmed next week in Mexico. That particular one was inevitable anyway, and it feels now like we're going through the motions before the inevitable is confirmed. But no one is going through the motions as impressively as Lewis.

It threatened, briefly, to get interesting over first place in this one, as Vettel's Ferrari from second had much the better start and took the lead from poleman Lewis, elbowing ahead on the inside of turn one. But, as noted, it was fleeting. On lap six Lewis with cruel ease got by to lead, on the long straight.

US GP Betting Preview - Lone star in the Lone Star State?

On one level calling this weekend's US Grand Prix at Austin looks a no brainer.

Will it be a close fight between the big three teams?
Photo: Octane Photography

Lewis Hamilton is a Texan specialist, with four wins from five races here. He also is in formidable recent form - winning five from the last seven. Plus the circuit, the first two thirds of it at least, should suit the Mercedes. And 9/10 for Lewis to triumph looks reasonable value.

But dig a little deeper and things may not be that simple in any case. The final part of the COTA lap may not suit the Merc plus tyre warm up can be tricky at Austin - something that on 2017 experience will give the silver squad's engineers a shudder.

Plus its two closest rival teams will enter the weekend with optimism. It's easy to lose sight of that the Ferrari's still looked quick in recent weeks when it's not been breaking down; COTA has a bit of everything about both its layout and its temperatures and these should play into the hands of the versatile red machine. And its reliability woes have to end sometime, don't they...?

Japanese GP Report - When things run away from you

It was deja vu all over again. Literally. In the Japanese Grand Prix for the third race in a row Ferrari was compromised from the first beat. For the third race in a row (in fact more than that) Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes made a major points gain. And now we're in the endgame.

No wonder he's smiling - in Suzuka Lewis Hamilton
all but wrapped up his fourth drivers' title
Photo: Octane Photography

This time it was a spark plug problem for Sebastian Vettel. Just as with Kimi Raikkonen in Malaysia, the Ferrari mechanics were frantic on the grid around Seb's car. Such reliability niggles are becoming a habit.

Unlike Kimi in Sepang Seb got going but the extent of his problem soon was evident. Max Verstappen ambushed him for P2 at the hairpin first time through, then Esteban Ocon, Daniel Ricciardo and Valtteri Bottas all swamped him on the pit straight next time past.

Quickly he was pulled in to retire, and Vettel later spoke like a man who knew the championship was gone.

"I think I need to protect them," he said of his team. "We've done an incredible job this year, it's like that sometimes.

Suzuka Qualifying - Rising star

So reports of Mercedes's F1 death were greatly exaggerated.

Yes to an extent a bounce back was expected. Suzuka, particularly its full noise final part, would suit it. The temperatures - unlike the previous two rounds - were cool, and this the Merc loves. But given recent flailing, much of it unanticipated, no one was taking anything for granted.

Mercedes, and especially Lewis Hamilton, reasserted
control in Suzuka qualifying
Photo: Octane Photography

From an early part of the qualifying hour it looked a familiar story though - Lewis Hamilton and his Merc well on top. He converted his advantage too, taking a pole as balmy as is possible in such circumstances, by a third of a second. It is, astonishingly at this drivers' track, his first ever pole here of his 71.

"I never ever really got a great balance in the past so I never did great in qualifying," Lewis noted afterwards.

"So to finally get the balance behind me with the great work of my engineers and the great timing from all the mechanics, I finally got on track and did the time.

"And the car is crazy here, I wish you could feel it.

Japanese GP Betting Preview - Turning Japanese

F1's battles at the front in recent times have been three way between Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull. And the Japanese round this weekend once again in advance feels a close call between the trio - all approach the round with some reason for hope.

Will the 'big three' teams be evenly
matched again at Suzuka?
Photo: Octane Photography

Sebastian Vettel's Ferrari will not now be taking a gearbox grid drop in Japan, which brings him right back into the game. He has after all been the pace-setter in both of the previous two rounds, and more encouragingly for him the two tracks had very different demands.

It's not clear if the bookies have noticed - or perhaps they've noticed Ferrari's concurrent habit of treading on its own tail. Seb's 14/5 to win in Japan looks generous.

They have noticed Red Bull's improved form though, with Max Verstappen at a much tightened 5/1 (readers of the Malaysia betting preview will know Max could have been backed at 25/1 for his Sepang win) and Daniel Ricciardo at 7/1 to triumph this time. Flowing Suzuka will suit the RB13 - a few think Red Bull again has the best chassis in F1. If you fancy playing safer then Max is at 3/4 and Daniel 11/10 to get on the podium.

Italian GP Report - Mercedes mastery

This F1 championship battle seems determined to fox us.

The Italian Grand Prix was all about Mercedes,
and especially Lewis Hamilton
Photo: Octane Photography

In many ways this one at Monza was a lot like the one at Spa a week before. A high speed track that we thought could be designed for Mercedes. Indeed it's likely so to an even greater extent than the Belgian track - plenty of long straights to show its top end grunt; few corners that Ferrari can catch up in. Merc's trimmed set up appears the more efficient too.

And the winner was as expected - Merc's very own Lewis Hamilton.

Highlighting the ebb and flow he thus became the first back-to-back winner this season. With it he took the title lead for the first time.

But just like in Spa the significance for plotting the championship destination laid instead in the margin of the victory. Only this time the other way around - this time Merc was even further ahead of Ferrari than anticipated. Spa titled predictions towards Ferrari and Sebastian Vettel; this one titled them back.

Italian GP Betting Preview - Flutter on Ferrari?

On one level the Belgian Grand Prix last weekend went as expected, with a Lewis Hamilton pole and win. But on a broader level, expectations shifted.

Can Sebastian Vettel run with Lewis Hamilton
just like he did at Spa?
Photo: Octane Photography

Mercedes was supposed to dominate at Spa but instead Sebastian Vettel and Ferrari chased Lewis all the way and looked quicker in race trim. Now at Monza this weekend we have another track with similar (ish) high speed demands, plus Ferrari is at home where it historically finds extra oomph. The chat is of a new engine debuted this time.

On the other hand a heavier restriction on oil burning is also coming in this weekend. It was thought anyway that it'd impede Ferrari more than Mercedes and yesterday we learnt furthermore that Merc's new engine - debuted last weekend - won't be subject to the stricter limit.

Still if it's too close to call then Seb's 18/5 to win is better value than Lewis's 2/3. It's still worth backing Lewis for pole - where Mercedes can turn its engines up more than Ferrari- at 8/13. Given both Ferrari and Merc will likely be backing their 'number one' pilot it's likely not worth backing anyone else to triumph.

Belgian GP Report - Class of two

"This is a snapshot of 2017 - a class of two out front, head-to-head."

Lewis Hamilton won out after an intense race long battle
Photo: Octane Photography

As Martin Brundle noted it is indeed a familiar story for this season. Whatever we seem to muse in advance somehow it pans out to two men and the teams that they lead. Lewis Hamilton and his Mercedes; Sebastian Vettel and his Ferrari. So it was at Spa.

In another story of 2017 this Belgian Grand Prix fight rarely was wheel-to-wheel. But it was intense and unrelenting. Any mistake would have decided it there and then. It never came from either

It even perturbed the best of them. "I would not liked to have driven that one," admitted Niki Lauda. "From first to last lap it was flat out, there was no room for anything."

As ever here the start and first long run to Les Combes mattered - poleman Lewis's launch was better than Seb's in second but he still had to cover the inside line at the top of the hill from his foe. But, crucially, he retained first place.

Spa Qualifying - All about Lew

It can be said that he rose to the occasion. Lewis Hamilton will start tomorrow's Belgian Grand Prix at Spa from pole, but the qualifying session was about so much more than that. In more than one sense.

Spa qualifying, for several reasons, was
all about Lewis Hamilton
Photo: Octane Photography

He was imperious at this most classic of tracks, which was fitting not only to break the all-time track speed record but also to equal the all-time pole total record held by Michael Schumacher. All too on Schumi's most devastating of hunting grounds.

Matters came full circle. We entered the weekend with plenty of reasons to think Mercedes would be on top. Initially in practice it looked that way, but strong Ferrari race running on Friday then an equally strong Saturday morning practice led us to think the red cars might make a game of it.

But as often it was an illusion. Mercedes figures didn't look worried. As usual come Q2 Merc cranked its units up. It has new ones this time too adding to the shift.

Belgian GP Betting Preview - Silver into gold

As outlined in my Belgian Grand Prix preview, there are plenty of reasons to think this weekend's Spa gathering will be a Mercedes demonstration run. 70% of the Belgian lap is full throttle and there are plenty of quick turns otherwise that'll reward the silver car's long wheel base and aerodynamic efficiency. Temperatures may be cool plus the long lap (for prior to a qualifying effort) and track layout should head off its occasional tyre warm up problems.

Will there be a repeat of Silverstone at Spa?
Photo: Octane Photography

Plenty of parallels with Silverstone in other words, where the Mercs ran away. And Lewis Hamilton did so especially - he can be got at 10/11 to win this time and 7/10 to get the pole.

Still it's worth as ever considering the other Mercedes. Valtteri Bottas's odds remain generous-looking all things considered. He's 5/1 to win and 7/2 to take pole.

Only six of the last 16 Belgian Grand Prix pole-sitters have gone on to win, and it's suggested that with the long run to Les Combes on lap one it's preferable to start second and get the slipstream from the pole man - you can get 9/4 on whoever starts second winning the race.