Friday 18 April 2014

Chinese GP Betting Preview - Can Lewis throw a knockout blow in round 4? By Andy Morgan

An exhilarating encounter in Bahrain showcased one of the best inter-team battles in recent memory. Now it is time for the 11th Grand Prix at the Shanghai International Circuit to flourish and host round 4 of the 2014 F1 season, fast becoming a memorable fight between Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg.

Two successive 1-2s and maximum points for Mercedes has consolidated the strong advantage Lewis and Nico are currently enjoying. It would be a major shock to see any of the chasing pack significantly push them this weekend, particularly as the lengthy straights emulate Bahrain and suit the power-packed Mercedes engine.

Will Lewis be in the picture again in Shanghai?
Photo: Octane Photography
Lewis Hamilton in China will be targeting three consecutive wins, a feat never achieved by the 2008 World Champion in his Formula 1 career. Yet the exciting display at Bahrain proved to the world that Lewis will not be strolling away with world title number two. Only a majestic defense drive kept Nico and his fresher, softer tyres at bay.

Lewis admitted that Nico was the quicker man in Bahrain, confirmed by the German's pumped up, steely manner on the podium. Nico is likely to carry that intensity and determination into the weekend, looking to avenge the previous two defeats to his former karting teammate.

Both Mercedes drivers have had success in China, Hamilton recording two wins while Rosberg earned his first ever Grand Prix win at the same circuit in 2012.

The 56 laps are China is often affected by rain and early forecasts suggest that the heavens will target qualifying, for the third time in four races this year. Tyre degradation was a major factor last year with the eventual winner Fernando Alonso pitting on lap six on his first stint, indicating that Force India may have another strong race if they can go easy on the tyres.

With Mercedes likely to dominate qualifying and the race, a variety of markets have been considered in finding the best value this weekend.

Best Bets of the weekend

Lewis Hamilton - Qualifying Winner - 1.86

I'd back Hamilton 80% of the time to beat his teammate in qualifying and with Mercedes certain to have the fastest car, this looks great value.

Is Alonso a man to watch this weekend?
Photo: Octane Photography
Fernando Alonso - Podium Finish - 2.76

Fernando won in China last year and his early showing in FP2 suggests that Ferrari should have a strong weekend here for their new Team Principal Marco Mattiacci.

Kimi Raikkonen - Top 6 - 1.95

Raikkonen will show his true class sooner rather than later, it wouldn't surprise me if it's here at China.

Other Bets

Daniel Ricciardo - Podium Finish - 4.0

Although Daniel hasn't got the points on the board, his form has deserved more and a podium is not out of the question

Nico Rosberg - Race Win - 2.98

Really good value for a determined Nico Rosberg. The price difference is far too big for the quality difference between Lewis and Nico

Hamilton/Rosberg - Quali/Winner Double - 4.3

Rosberg started on pole in Bahrain and Hamilton finished on top, the reverse this weekend? At 4.3 it's worth a punt.

Bets We've made:

Hamilton Qualifying Winner - 1.86
Fernando Alonso - Podium Finish - 2.76
Hamilton/Rosberg Quali/Winner Double - 4.3

F1 Betting Preview can be followed on Twitter at: @F1BetPreview

All odds courtesy of Betfair on Friday morning GMT after FP1 and FP2 This post is written by Andy Morgan. It originally featured on F1 2014 Betting Preview and has been reproduced with permission.

1 comment:

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