Ayrton Senna – My Opinion on What Caused his Crash?, by Ibrar Malik

One of the most fundamental mysteries of the 1994 Formula 1 season was why Ayrton Senna, one of the sport's greatest ever drivers, crash fatally at a relatively easy corner?

To this day, no-one knows for certain why Senna crashed. Many theories of varying credibility have been put forward. My personal view is Senna, desperate to break free from the car behind, carried a bit too much speed into Tamburello the car went slightly offline onto a part of the track known to be extremely bumpy. The ride height was still too low after the safety car so it 'bottomed out'. This also caused the peaky aerodynamics on the Williams to stall resulting in a catastrophic loss of grip made worse by tyres not up to working pressures or temperatures. This view is shared by Damon Hill who drove an identical car to Senna, and Michael Schumacher, who had the clearest view of what started the crash. In my humble opinion, they are the two best people to judge its cause.

 Senna leading Schumacher moments before the crash

Inside Line F1 Podcast - Rich Energy + Red Bull = Monster?

In the 'battle of the energy drinks' in Formula 1, everyone is talking about Rich Energy vs. Red Bull Racing. But what about Monster? Wouldn't growing horns and wings make one a Monster? Yes, there's this and more in our episode of the Inside Line F1 Podcast.

Photo: Octane Photography

We talk about the livery reveals till date - can we also stop calling them 'car launches' please? Will Honda offer the midfield teams a rare chance to fight for the top 3 in 2019? In which case, would you bet on Red Bull Racing fighting to be the 'best of the rest' or the winner of the Formula 1.5? Could that give us an odd Magnussen vs Verstappen fight? Finally, we tell you why Nico Rosberg doesn't miss Formula 1. Tune in!

(Season 2019, Episode 4)
Subscribe to the Inside Line F1 Podcast on iTunes, audioBoom (RSS feed) and Google Podcasts for your weekly dose of Formula 1 humour

Here's what's in store for you this episode:

0:00-3:00: 'Livery and sponsor' reveals, not car launches by the Formula 1 teams, that's the truth. So why call it a 'car launch' in the first place?

3:00-6:00: The battle of the energy drinks in the world of Formula 1. Will we have a Magnussen vs. Verstappen? Doesn't the Rich Energy logo look like the halo on the Formula 1 car?

6:00-9:00: Are the midfield Formula 1 teams not ambitious enough? Will Honda give the other teams a rare chance to fight for 3rd place? Haas-Williams-Racing Point already embarrassing McLaren on the title sponsor front?

9:00-12:00: Will the 2020 Formula 1 Season see the return of two champions? And of course, this week's 'What Wolff Said This Week' section. Will Ocon return to Formula 1 in 2020 as a 'heavier' driver?

12:00-15:00: Oh the irony - Marcus Ericsson talks of consistency being the key to success in Indy Car. Renault could blame their steering wheel for car failures in 2019.

15:00-18:00: Red Bull Racing introduced a Spidey Mobile, while Ferrari hired Red Bull and Mercedes discards to boost their Formula 1 simulator program. Brendon Hartley to Formula E with Porsche?

18:00-end: Here's why Nico Rosberg can't be missing Formula 1 too much...

My Top 10 F1 Drivers of 2018: The Rest…

Here are my views on those F1 drivers from 2018 who didn't make my top 10 ranking from a few days ago. If you're interested, you can read the top 10 here.

Photo: Octane Photography

Going through the 'other 10' in final drivers' table order brings us first to Sergio Perez, for whom 2018 was more of the same – for good and ill. He racked up plenty of points plus in the way that apparently only he can bagged a podium finish when the very rare opportunity offered itself. Yet Perez couldn't alter his long-time predicament of lingering in the middle ground between being a good midfielder (with money) and a talent that a top team will covet. It didn't help that, while there as ever wasn't much in it, his Force India team-mate Esteban Ocon had the pace edge for the most part. Nor did his hooligan performance in Singapore, first showing not much effort to avoid a collision with Ocon then – far worse – having a rage swipe at Sergey Sirotkin.

Kevin Magnussen's season was rather a breakthrough. With him at last getting the many benefits of a second season in a race seat, the results flowed particularly in the early part of the campaign. He didn't always string things together though, and more broadly once team-mate Romain Grosjean sorted himself out Magnussen tended to be the second Haas. He also gave more evidence to sustain his enfant terrible image – the criticisms can be excessive but still his move on Pierre Gasly in Baku then on Charles Leclerc at Suzuka were hard to defend. He sometimes gives the impression of revelling in the status but equally it may become a burden.

Mexico City Preview: Unfinished business

So reports of the championship battle's death were greatly exaggerated. Or rather, they were premature by a week. Lewis Hamilton heading into the Mexican Grand Prix this weekend still has a little bit of work to do.

Barring the unusual, Lewis Hamilton will clinch the
world championship this weekend
Photo: Octane Photography

Despite everything though Austin's result from last Sunday ratcheted up the certainty of his fifth drivers' title. Now he needs only five points - or to put it another way a seventh place - to make it official. Surely barring a non-finish or very severe delay he'll get it this time. Even a small delay shouldn't stop him - we've seen time and again that these days members of the six-car Class A can polish off all of Class B with minimum fuss.

And perhaps it's just as well for Hamilton and Mercedes that the mathematics are straightforward, as at this Magdalena Mixhuca parkland venue in Mexico City it emphatically cannot expect a walk in the park.

United States GP Report - Going off script

It was supposed to a coronation. In this United States Grand Prix a result of the sort we'd got used to lately repeated would secure Lewis Hamilton's fifth world championship. And Austin is just about his happiest hunting ground. Plus Ferrari, his closest challenger, was imploding.

Kimi Raikkonen won for the first time since early 2013
Photo: Octane Photography

But Formula 1, despite some convincing impressions otherwise, has a nagging tendency not to follow its predetermined scripts. This one instead turned out to be an improv show.

It went off script early too. Ferrari somehow rediscovered its pace that had gone missing since the Italian round. Although with it the team stuck firmly to its recent lines of going a way to scupper itself nevertheless. Or rather Hamilton's title rival Sebastian Vettel did. He didn't slow sufficiently under a red flag in practice and had three added to his qualifying slot in advance. Hamilton got the pole, like he always seems to somehow, but the red cars were right on his case.

It all left Vettel's Ferrari stable-mate Kimi Raikkonen starting alongside Hamilton on the front row – a man who in his second Scuderia spell has tended to fumble the rare opportunities for glory tossed his way. Plus among the front-runners he alone started on the ultra-soft tyre rather than the the more durable super-soft. But in the race we immediately got our latest evidence that this one was indeed diverging from what was written, and in a conspicuous way as Raikkonen for the first time in 37 races made up a place from his starting slot on the first lap. The ultimate one of taking the lead from Hamilton by seizing the inside of turn one.

Japanese GP Betting Preview - Hi ho silver

The Russian round last weekend felt like a moment of realisation. Ferrari it seems doesn't have the inherent pace advantage; not anymore at any stretch. Perhaps, some reckon, the FIA had a word in its ear about its famous engine mode.

Lewis Hamilton now has the upper hand on Sebastian Vettel
Photo: Octane Photography

So the championship points table is not a trick of the light. Mercedes and particularly Lewis Hamilton are indeed worthy favourites. And they should especially be worthy favourites at Suzuka this weekend, scene of the latest Japanese Grand Prix. Flowing tracks such as this one are usually where the Merc is at its most potent and a silver car has won the last four here.

Hamilton and Merc being favourite isn't good for the flutter-minded F1 fan as their odds tend to be pretty tight at the best of times. Nevertheless you can back Hamilton for pole and win at 5/6 at 11/13 respectively.

There are though a couple of points to consider. One is Hamilton hasn't always been that happy at Suzuka. Even though he's won here three times last year was his first pole and by his own admission he hasn't always found a suitable set-up for this track. With this and that Mercedes is expected to be on top is it worth backing the other Merc of Valtteri Bottas?

Sochi Preview: Now or never?

The song remains the same. Ferrari should be on top in this weekend's Russian Grand Prix at Sochi. But we've said that a few times in recent weeks about the Grand Prix before us, only for something to come along to ensure it doesn't come to pass. Victory or not will likely again be a matter or whether the Scuderia can at last avoid treading on its own tail.

Can Ferrari at last get something over Lewis Hamilton?
Photo: Octane Photography

Matters now are getting critical. With its previous failures Ferrari and Sebastian Vettel you feel simply must get something back on Mercedes and Lewis Hamilton this weekend to salvage what is left of their diminishing title chances. And not just due to the championship points mathematics.

It again goes in with a few identifiable causes for optimism. Some 70% of the Sochi lap is spent on full throttle - it's a slightly Montreal-esque collection of straights and sharp turns around an Olympic site - and we've seen repeatedly that the works Ferrari has a notable grunt advantage over all others. Even last year the red cars locked out the front row of the grid in an age wherein such a thing was rare. Vettel goes well here too; his high-momentum corner entry style suits the circuit.

Italian GP Betting Preview - Just like old times?

F1 has in a sense gone full circle. Time was we could expect a Ferrari upturn for the Italian Grand Prix at Monza. As its home round, with everything that entails, the red team would turn up with a 'special'. For various reasons those days are in the past. But for the first Italian visit in a good while we nevertheless turn up this time with Ferrari emphatically the team to beat.

The view the rest will be getting of Ferrari?
Photo: Octane Photography

The Scuderia generally has been on top pace-wise in recent rounds, and in the Belgian stop-off last weekend - at a track just like Monza with plenty of full throttle sections - both Ferrari and Mercedes turned up with new power units and Ferrari remained at least as far ahead on that front as it had been before. Perhaps more so. Sebastian Vettel sailed past Lewis Hamilton on lap one as if he was parked on the way to a comfortable victory. Much to Hamilton's audible chagrin.

And as intimated this advantage will count for a lot at Monza, and the bookies have noticed judging by that they've made Vettel favourite for the pole and win. The odds still look pretty tempting as you'll near enough double your money if Vettel prevails, with 8/11 for him to get pole and 19/20 to win the race.

With this too you may be similarly tempted by the 8/13 available for Vettel's fellow Ferrari Kimi Raikkonen to finish on the podium. The grapevine has him being retained at the Scuderia for next year, and another Ferrari tradition is announcing drivers for the following year at Monza - so with this the Finn should be in a good mood. You can also get 3/5 on a Ferrari to win.

Hungarian GP Report - Lightening strikes twice

In a season of often inexplicable twists and turns, this one in Hungary was instead an case of history repeating. Appropriately for 2018, the lightening hitting the precise same spots as in Germany a week ago was in itself highly uncanny.

Lewis Hamilton took his second unlikely win in a row
Photo: Octane Photography

Just like then Mercedes and particularly Lewis Hamilton at the Hungaroring looked out of it. Just like then Sebastian Vettel and Ferrari looked poised to make a major gain in the championship. Just like then rain then arrived and tilted things decisively towards Hamilton, who against expectations made the sizeable points gain instead. Only this time the rain arrived in qualifying.

A few sniggered behind their palms when Hamilton hinted at divine intervention after the elements came to his aid in Germany. But with them now doing that right on cue for two rounds now on the spin, it may as well have been have been a matter of someone consciously guiding events his way.

Qualifying order means a lot in F1 of course, and it has long meant a lot at the tight and sinewy Hungaroring. Sure enough leading from the race's off formed the basis of Hamilton's latest victory - but his performance on Sunday and particularly Saturday was highly impressive even so.

German GP Report - Hamilton rains on Vettel's parade

We never learn. Despite constant reminders. Despite everything.

Lewis Hamilton took an unlikely win
Photo: Octane Photography

F1's mantras are familiar - that anything can and does happen; that it's not over until it's over; that no points are handed out until the chequered flag is waved. The trouble is we don't abide by them. Not even in this season which has contained more shifts - between and within weekends - than likely just about any other.

The German Grand Prix weekend at Hockenheim was but the latest reminder of the mantras' efficacy. And the sternest one. Sebastian Vettel took a crushing pole position in his Ferrari - Mercedes spoke of the Italian car having a half second advantage on the straights alone. And moreover Vettel's title foe Lewis Hamilton started 14th after a qualifying hydraulics failure on his Mercedes. Worse for him the suggestion floated that it was his error that caused the failure. Sure enough the arithmetic started about how much Vettel would extend his title lead by.

But once the points were handed out things could hardly have looked more different. Vettel was in the wall and Hamilton, somehow, had come through to win. His title lead was not only reclaimed but healthy looking at 17. In a season of turns this was its sharpest.

British GP Report - Red ratification?

The British Grand Prix was about coming to a realisation. Martin Brundle called it in Friday practice - that in 2018 we have to get used to the idea that Ferrari will be quick everywhere. And if this one was the red car's ultimate test then it passed it triumphantly.

Ferrari and Sebastian Vettel passed their toughest
test with flying colours
Photo: Octane Photography

In every sense - literal and metaphorical - Silverstone is Ferrari's away fixture. Not only as one of a small minority of teams not to have a base a short drive away, it also is a track that we thought could have been designed for its chief rival Mercedes. Results say this too with the silver team winning the previous five here - most dominantly - and Lewis Hamilton in Nigel Mansell-esque style being particularly happy at home, taking the last four.

Yet this time Sebastian Vettel and Ferrari won, and deservedly. On that basis they can win anywhere. Maybe it's the car to beat this year.

Granted there were some adventures in getting there, but the bottom line is that Ferrari - armed with a new floor which seemed to electrify the red cars and straightline speed that rival Daniel Ricciardo described as '"insane" - looked at least as fast as Mercedes throughout on the latter's happiest of hunting grounds. Only Hamilton pulling a rabbit out of the hat - again Mansell-esque on his home ground - denied Ferrari pole. Otherwise the Scuderia was never denied.

British GP Betting Preview - Not looking for a new England

We might think that we start this one with little hope. In our previous betting preview we bemoaned that predicting F1 outcomes is a perilous task right now, and then we had an Austrian race where what we got barely resembled what we reasonably anticipated at the start.

It's worth backing a Mercedes at Silverstone
Photo: Octane Photography

But that we're at Silverstone means the clouds part (unusually for Silverstone you might say) and we get a clear view. Because we have a striking consistent previous to go on.

Mercedes usually dominates here and Lewis Hamilton especially dominates - he's won his last four home rounds. And even with the Mercedes and Lewis trauma that went down in Austria likely the biggest implication was that Merc had stolen a march on the rest with its upgrade.

Therefore there's likely little point putting your money anywhere else for pole and win. And even so the odds for Hamilton to do these offer a pretty decent return - he can be backed at 4/5 to get pole and evens to win.

While if you really want to get behind the prospect of Lewis dominating then there are other ways you can bet on it. A pole, fastest lap and win triumvirate for any driver - i.e. not just Hamilton - can be backed at 11/4 and a pole winning margin of over two tenths can be backed at evens. Mercedes tends also to be strong in first practice and you can back Hamilton to top that session at 5/4.

Silverstone Preview - Challenging your inner Nige

Every year at around this time I experience conflict. I'm not one driven by patriotism, particularly not in F1. But even I cannot deny that there is something about the British Grand Prix.

Even to the non-patriotic, there is
something about Silverstone
Photo: Octane Photogrpahy

It can't even be said that its hardy host Silverstone has universal appeal. It's not glamourous, nor picture postcard. Instead rather exposed and windswept.

Yet still few refute that the Northamptonshire circuit bows to almost none in being part of the F1 furniture. And this is for a number of reasons.

Chiefly it is F1's home gig. Seven of F1's ten teams are based (or in Haas's case has a base) in Britain, and six of these are within a few miles of the Silverstone track. As are a myriad of companies that supply them in the F1 equivalent of silicon valley.

The venue also is among F1's most ubiquitous. It was at Silverstone that it all started in 1950, and despite sometimes extensive changes it retains much of its character - flowing, rapid and with many long and mighty turns.

French GP Report - Zig and zag

It's worth reflecting that in not a single F1 round this season have we ended the weekend with the same sense of the competitive pecking order that we started the weekend with. Yes both Lewis Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel have won races back-to-back this year, but in both cases the first of the pair was fortunate; the second was imperious.

Lewis Hamilton bounced back in France
Photo: Octane Photography

And in France at the Paul Ricard circuit - F1's first visit to the country since 2008 and the first to this circuit since 1990 - this continued. Hamilton and Mercedes zigged while Vettel and Ferrari zagged. Vettel's joy and Hamilton's woe from Montreal last time out were almost exactly reversed.

Vettel when asked after qualifying what was different mused, "the weather, the track, the location - the car is the same, same chassis - the tyres..."

And in a tight fight at the front these combined can tilt things either way.

Spanish GP Report - Meet the new boss, same as the old boss

There are two things we associate chiefly with Spanish Grands Prix at the Barcelona track. One is dull races with little overtaking. The other is a strong steer of the competitive pecking order among the competing cars.

Mercedes and particularly Lewis Hamilton
dominated the Spanish Grand Prix
Photo: Octane Photography 

We certainly got the former this time. It was indeed, to use the well-worn euphemism, not a thriller. But if the latter applies too it then it's ominous. And a familiar sort of ominous.

As if this one was dull it was made so in large part by Mercedes's dominance. And particularly that of Lewis Hamilton.

"It's one of those happy Lewis days when he's unbeatable," opined Martin Brundle early on, noting something that hasn't been present all that often in 2018 prior to this one. It had that sort of inevitability about it from the point poleman Lewis led into turn one.

He won by 20 seconds and probably would have been happy to drive his W09 straight home to Monaco too if such things were allowed.

Baku Preview: Contrast and potential

In 2016 F1 rocked up to a new street circuit in Baku, Azerbaijan, told to expect something "not like anything we've seen before in F1".

The Baku street circuit's challenges are unique
Photo: Pirelli Media

A lot of things have been seen before in F1 of course, but in fairness this track's challenges are somewhat detached from the modern norm. Not least in their contrasts.

A real downtown circuit. Plenty of near-to-hand walls. Much of the track claustrophobic with a twisty narrow section around the old city walls redolent of Mirabeau-Station Hairpin-Portiers at Monaco. Yet there's also a 2.1 km straight longer than anything at Monza. Appropriate for a city that likes to say it blends old and new; east and west...

Appropriately also on the basis of the two F1 races here things can go either way. We expected frolics aplenty in the first visit - safety cars and trips down narrow escape roads. Also an ultra generous DRS zone leaving even quick cars vulnerable to being overtaken, particularly on restarts. The GP2 rounds indeed gave us all of that.

Chinese GP Report - Bull run

There is a theme developing in this F1 season. We think we're getting one thing; something that looks very simple. But then suddenly we get something else entirely.

Daniel Ricciardo took an unlikely win
Photo: Octane Photography

If the opening two rounds left us confused on whether Ferrari or Mercedes was on top this year, China seemed initially to provide a coherent answer. Ferrari and Sebastian Vettel dominated once again. Seb led from pole and was controlling things in that way we got used to in his Red Bull pomp. Replete with the heavy sense of inevitability that the win would be his, which in this case would make it three from three. Yet come the end it seemed something from another age.

Actual Red Bull ambushed the race. The unlikely figure of Daniel Ricciardo took the win.

Valtteri Bottas's Mercedes was chasing in second just as he was in Bahrain yet Vettel was three seconds clear and looked to have everything foreseen. But then his day started to unravel. In the pitstop round Bottas got ahead with an undercut. He appeared out of range but the combination of a powerful new tyre effect, a mighty out-lap and a slightly tardy in-lap from Vettel and a similarly tardy stop from Ferrari combined to do the deed.

Chinese GP Betting Preview - Chinese Chequers

It all looked so simple. The Melbourne season-opener seemed to confirm the pre-season testing grapevine without the most minor variation. Yes a mid-race Virtual Safety Car shuffled the end result, but that was happenstance.

The Bahrain round contained a major departure in
F1 form, but Mercedes could bounce back in China
Photo: Pirelli Media

Then the Bahrain round comes along next and dashes just about all of our certainties. It started at the front - Mercedes and Lewis Hamilton wasn't strolling the 2018 season after all as Ferrari plain out-paced the silver cars at the Sakhir circuit in qualifying at least. Then on race day Sebastian Vettel held them off to win again and make it two wins from two.

And so the big question as we head into round three in China is was Melbourne the unusual case, was Bahrain, or is the norm even something else entirely?

You can make a coherent case that Mercedes will bounce back this weekend. If the heat of Bahrain was Merc's problem then Shanghai will be much cooler. If the abrasive surface in Bahrain was Merc's problem then Shanghai's is much smoother. And even with all its problems Mercedes probably should still have won in Bahrain; it probably would have without Hamilton's grid penalty.

Bahrain GP Report - Changed days

To think that just over two weeks ago after Melbourne's season-opening qualifying session we were bracing ourselves for a year of Mercedes domination. Somehow Ferrari, and Sebastian Vettel, has won the campaign's opening two rounds. The first time the Scuderia has done so since its pomp of 2004.

Against advance expectations Sebastian Vettel

made it two wins from two

Photo: Octane Photography

It's not been quite as simple as those days of demonstration runs in red. The Melbourne win owed much to external events. This time in Bahrain though it all of a sudden was down to pace, mixed on race day with some seat of the pants strategy. F1 whatever else happens never loses its capacity to surprise.

Quite where the Ferrari potency came from isn't clear, but Bahrain is a very different challenge in temperature and layout to Australia; the Italian team also had worked on its troublesome front end between rounds. Add in F1's capacity for voodoo and the Ferrari was the car to beat here.

It locked out the front row of the grid, Vettel ahead, and looked hard to stop. A recent F1 truism is that the usually haughty Mercedes is less happy relatively on softer tyre compounds, as well as when the temperatures go up. The combination of these in Bahrain led to it struggling with overheating the supersoft rubber in qualifying. Adding to its woe, gearbox damage from Melbourne meant Lewis Hamilton had to add five to his starting slot from the fourth place he managed in quali. But of course Mercedes is never to be counted out, and it sought to make a virtue of its vices.

Australian GP Betting Preview - Early birds

You know what they say about the early bird. It applies to F1 betting. As this point before the season actually starts is unique; only now do none of us really know who among the season's cars and drivers is actually quick and not quick when it matters. And this gives opportunities.

There are opportunities for the F1
gambler prior to the first race
Photo: Octane Photography

The pre-season testing consensus was that the 'big three' of Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull are close, more so than we've got used to. But equally there was a sense from testing that Merc remains out front. Plus in this hybrid era there's been little money to be made from backing anyone else - four championship doubles from four; 63 race wins from 79...

Lewis Hamilton therefore is the unimaginative bet for 2018 but also likely the safest one, and you can near enough double your money on a Hamilton title by backing him at 5/6.

Nevertheless if Red Bull is indeed starting a season strongly for once then the 8/1 available for Max Verstappen to win this year's championship looks pretty good medium range value.