New Motorsport Week article: Why we shouldn't cry for Pierre Gasly or decry Red Bull

Photo: Octane Photography

After the recent Red Bull rumpus - Pierre Gasly being ditched forthwith to be swapped with Alex Albon, until recently of Toro Rosso - there was an outpouring of opprobrium.

That Red Bull was harsh; that it had ruined another of its drivers' careers...

But in my latest feature for Motorsport Week I take the contrary view, and explain why we shouldn't feel all that sorry for Pierre Gasly for being dropped, nor should we trash Red Bull's approach with young drivers.

You can have a read of my thinking here: https://www.motorsportweek.com/news/id/24085

New Motorsport Week article: Albon - the case for F1's forgotten rookie

Photo: Octane Photography

You'll have seen by now the various George Russell/Lando Norris F1 season preview articles. Often talking of the two as synonymous. And it's little wonder. Rookies will commonly get attention prior to the season start, particularly if they have plenty of promise based on the junior formulae and even more particularly if they're British.

But there's a third rookie who (sort of) meets these criteria. And yet he's got nothing like the focus, instead appears to have an odd man out status. Yet he just might be best of the lot. I'm talking about Alexander Albon, making his bow this season with Toro Rosso.

In my latest for Motorsport Week I state his case. You can have a read here: https://www.motorsportweek.com/news/id/21933

US GP Betting Preview - Lone Star State

Appropriate to the Lone Star State, F1 therein has a lone star. Lewis Hamilton tends to be untouchable in his visits to Austin, Texas.

F1 races at Austin are usually about one man
Photo: Octane Photography

The numbers pay testimony. He's won five of F1's six Austin races. Taking it back further he's won six US Grands Prix of the last seven. Taking it instead to the most recent general form he's also won six of the last seven rounds anywhere. This weekend for the latest US Grand Prix he'll have the scent of a fifth world championship in his nostrils, so there'll be no shortage of motivation. He beams throughout his Austin weekends and it shows in his driving.

For the race win at least backing him seems what they call a no brainer. His odds are appropriately short, but still the 8/13 you can get on a Hamilton victory looks worth your wager.

Inside Line F1 Podcast - What Could Be Sebastian Vettel's Future In F1?

Will Sebastian Vettel go the Fernando Alonso way? Or will he retire from the sport as a quadruple World Champion? Or will he follow Michael Schumacher's footsteps and take on a team management role? What are the chances of Vettel jumping ship to Mercedes; a German driver racing for a German team and all of that...! Let alone young drivers, the lack of competitive teams in the sport could catch out this former World Champion too! From fighting Mercedes, Ferrari seem to be fighting within themselves.

In this week's episode of the Inside Line F1 Podcast, we tell you why Red Bull Racing should sell its vacant Toro Rosso cockpit to a wealthy pay driver. We applaud Daniel Ricciardo's comic timing while also questioning why Vladimir Putin arrives closer to the end of the Russian Grand Prix every year. Finally, we predict by what race this season would Lewis Hamilton seal the 2018 Formula 1 World Championship. We picked Brazil or Mexico - what's your pick? Tune in!

00:00-2:00 - Should Sebastian Vettel be called title contender for 2018 anymore?
2:00 - 5:00 - Will Vettel go the Fernando Alonso way? What could be Sebastian Vettel's future in Formula 1?
5:00 - 7:00 - Red Bull Racing to make money from their vacant cockpit at Toro Rosso?
7:00 - 9:00 - Good timing for Ferrari to introduce a new livery? Should Formula 1 allow teams to use one-off liveries?
9:00 - 11:00 - How would Mercedes deploy team orders in case they had a three car team & all three of their cars were 1-2-3?
11:00 - 13:00 - Daniel Ricciardo's comic timing - he cracked a doping joke at the Russian Grand Prix!
13:00 - 15:00 - Why does Vladimir Putin arrive closer to the end of the Russian Grand Prix every single year?
15:00 - 17:00 - What Wolff Said This Week section + Looking forward to Suzuka & the 2018 Japanese Grand Prix
17:00 - 22:00 - Moments in Time with Lucien; by which race would Lewis Hamilton clinch the 2018 Formula 1 Championship?

(Season 2018, Episode 34)

Subscribe to the Inside Line F1 Podcast on iTunes and on audioBoom (RSS feed) for your weekly dose of Formula 1 humour

Belgian GP Betting Preview - Hard rain

Formula 1 reconvenes after a four-week summer break with the consideration at the front remaining familiar - victory in this weekend's Belgian Grand Prix at Spa looks in advance a matter primarily of Lewis Hamilton's Mercedes versus Sebastian Vettel's Ferrari.

Once again at the front it looks like it'll be a matter
 of Sebastian Vettel versus Lewis Hamilton
Photo: Octane Photography

Ferrari had the quickest car in the weeks before the break, and Vettel won at the last similar-ish challenge to Spa at Silverstone. That 70% of the Spa track is taken at full throttle should be to his benefit too as the Ferrari engine has also been mighty recently. But then again in this time for one reason or another - some their own doing; some not - Vettel and Ferrari haven't always converted their advantage to victory.

And this time the very thing that scuppered them in the last weekend before the break in Hungary is due to re-occur. Rain.

The bookies agree that Hamilton versus Vettel is a tough call as the pair have exactly the same odds to win and to take pole - respectively 6/4 and 11/8.

Hungarian GP Report - Lightening strikes twice

In a season of often inexplicable twists and turns, this one in Hungary was instead an case of history repeating. Appropriately for 2018, the lightening hitting the precise same spots as in Germany a week ago was in itself highly uncanny.

Lewis Hamilton took his second unlikely win in a row
Photo: Octane Photography

Just like then Mercedes and particularly Lewis Hamilton at the Hungaroring looked out of it. Just like then Sebastian Vettel and Ferrari looked poised to make a major gain in the championship. Just like then rain then arrived and tilted things decisively towards Hamilton, who against expectations made the sizeable points gain instead. Only this time the rain arrived in qualifying.

A few sniggered behind their palms when Hamilton hinted at divine intervention after the elements came to his aid in Germany. But with them now doing that right on cue for two rounds now on the spin, it may as well have been have been a matter of someone consciously guiding events his way.

Qualifying order means a lot in F1 of course, and it has long meant a lot at the tight and sinewy Hungaroring. Sure enough leading from the race's off formed the basis of Hamilton's latest victory - but his performance on Sunday and particularly Saturday was highly impressive even so.

German GP Report - Hamilton rains on Vettel's parade

We never learn. Despite constant reminders. Despite everything.

Lewis Hamilton took an unlikely win
Photo: Octane Photography

F1's mantras are familiar - that anything can and does happen; that it's not over until it's over; that no points are handed out until the chequered flag is waved. The trouble is we don't abide by them. Not even in this season which has contained more shifts - between and within weekends - than likely just about any other.

The German Grand Prix weekend at Hockenheim was but the latest reminder of the mantras' efficacy. And the sternest one. Sebastian Vettel took a crushing pole position in his Ferrari - Mercedes spoke of the Italian car having a half second advantage on the straights alone. And moreover Vettel's title foe Lewis Hamilton started 14th after a qualifying hydraulics failure on his Mercedes. Worse for him the suggestion floated that it was his error that caused the failure. Sure enough the arithmetic started about how much Vettel would extend his title lead by.

But once the points were handed out things could hardly have looked more different. Vettel was in the wall and Hamilton, somehow, had come through to win. His title lead was not only reclaimed but healthy looking at 17. In a season of turns this was its sharpest.

French GP Betting Preview - French fancy

As F1 betting calls go, they hardly get tougher than for the returning French Grand Prix this weekend. Partly as it's a Paul Ricard venue that F1 hasn't visited since 1990 (and was very different then in any case) so there is no local form to go on. Also it's been resurfaced for its return so any learning from recent testing there has an asterisk against it too. Plus recent rounds tell us that there is very little to choose between 'big three' of Ferrari, Mercedes and Red Bull - and that outcomes can be decided in the margins that are hard to predict in advance. A mistake here, an inspired qualifying lap there...

Montreal confirmed that Sebastian Vettel and Ferrari
lead the way in 2018
Photo: Octane Photography

Sebastian Vettel's pole and win last time out at Montreal reminded us that he and the Ferrari have been 2018's most potent combination - something indeed borne out by fastest lap averages from the season so far (even if it hasn't always been borne out by results). And the Paul Ricard track doesn't look all that far removed from Montreal's - lengthy straights separated mainly by technical turns and switch-backs.

Despite this old habits die hard for the bookies as Lewis Hamilton remains their favourite to win this time at 13/8. But given everything the better value is with Vettel, at 9/5 for the win and 7/5 for the pole (Hamilton's odds for pole are 6/4).

Mercedes as we know had a tough time in Canada which came as quite the shock to all concerned. Hamilton's team-mate Valtteri Bottas indeed has on this basis declared it a "fact" that Mercedes is not the favourite this weekend.

Paul Ricard Preview - New but far from new

In F1, as we are often reminded, nothing should be ruled out. However absurd it may seem.

F1 returns to a familiar place this weekend
Photo: Octane Photography

The French Grand Prix is an apt tale in this. This weekend it at last returns to F1 after a decade away, at the Paul Ricard circuit near Marseille. Even allowing for the habitual agonising that accompanies the calendar choices, this recent French loss likely has been the most egregious move.

France is where motorsport's roots first sprouted. The first ever organised motor race took place there in July 1894 as did the first Grand Prix in 1906.

And a French Grand Prix appeared on the F1 calendar every year aside from 1955, when it was cancelled in the wake of the Le Mans disaster. Many great French drivers, teams and manufacturers have and still do bestride F1. But after 2008, after years of threatening by Bernie Ecclestone, the round was dropped - the familiar tale of lack of funding. And of F1 pitilessly abandoning its heritage and core audience in the name of chasing quick bucks.

Montreal Preview - In the spirit of Gilles

If you're looking for an adjective to sum up the F1 fraternity - participants and observers alike - then 'quarrelsome' may be near the top of your list.

Inimitable Montreal
Photo: Octane Photography

It applies to views on the venues too. But there is one on which there is close to unanimity and in the positive - the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve in Montreal for the Canadian Grand Prix. The latest visit to which is this weekend.

There are many reasons for its popularity. Madcap action is a positive expectation here. The layout ensures plenty of overtaking. The nearby walls can and frequently have punished errors. It even has its own 'Wall of Champions' which as the name suggests has ensnared the best. It is a place that rewards the brave.

Safety cars and carbon shards are a common feature, and these also have turned many-a Montreal race onto its head. Outcomes here are not so easy to predict - since the turn of the millennium only a little over one Montreal race in three has been won from pole.

Inside Line F1 Podcast - Best Time To Own A Formula 1 Team?

The business of Formula 1 seems to be changing. With Liberty Media looking to restructure team payments, budget caps, standardisation, etc. - is this the best time to invest in a Formula 1 team? Will owning a team finally be about its business rather than passion? We discuss more in this week's episode of the Inside Line F1 Podcast.

Daniel 'Shoey' Ricciardo is the hottest property in the paddock these days; we actually celebrated his win in Monaco with a shoey! Lewis Hamilton - will he seriously get to designing race tracks? After Miami, he's shown interest in redesigning the Monaco street circuit. We also tell you why the 2018 Monaco Grand Prix wasn't as boring as some of the drivers called it out to be. Finally, who could replace Brendon Hartley at Toro Rosso? And thank you Pirelli for renaming your tyre compounds for next season; we appreciate simplifying Formula 1. Tune in!

Subscribe to the Inside Line F1 Podcast on iTunes and on audioBoom (RSS feed) for your weekly dose of Formula 1 humour

(Season 2018, Episode 17)

Baku Preview: Contrast and potential

In 2016 F1 rocked up to a new street circuit in Baku, Azerbaijan, told to expect something "not like anything we've seen before in F1".

The Baku street circuit's challenges are unique
Photo: Pirelli Media

A lot of things have been seen before in F1 of course, but in fairness this track's challenges are somewhat detached from the modern norm. Not least in their contrasts.

A real downtown circuit. Plenty of near-to-hand walls. Much of the track claustrophobic with a twisty narrow section around the old city walls redolent of Mirabeau-Station Hairpin-Portiers at Monaco. Yet there's also a 2.1 km straight longer than anything at Monza. Appropriate for a city that likes to say it blends old and new; east and west...

Appropriately also on the basis of the two F1 races here things can go either way. We expected frolics aplenty in the first visit - safety cars and trips down narrow escape roads. Also an ultra generous DRS zone leaving even quick cars vulnerable to being overtaken, particularly on restarts. The GP2 rounds indeed gave us all of that.

Chinese GP Betting Preview - Chinese Chequers

It all looked so simple. The Melbourne season-opener seemed to confirm the pre-season testing grapevine without the most minor variation. Yes a mid-race Virtual Safety Car shuffled the end result, but that was happenstance.

The Bahrain round contained a major departure in
F1 form, but Mercedes could bounce back in China
Photo: Pirelli Media

Then the Bahrain round comes along next and dashes just about all of our certainties. It started at the front - Mercedes and Lewis Hamilton wasn't strolling the 2018 season after all as Ferrari plain out-paced the silver cars at the Sakhir circuit in qualifying at least. Then on race day Sebastian Vettel held them off to win again and make it two wins from two.

And so the big question as we head into round three in China is was Melbourne the unusual case, was Bahrain, or is the norm even something else entirely?

You can make a coherent case that Mercedes will bounce back this weekend. If the heat of Bahrain was Merc's problem then Shanghai will be much cooler. If the abrasive surface in Bahrain was Merc's problem then Shanghai's is much smoother. And even with all its problems Mercedes probably should still have won in Bahrain; it probably would have without Hamilton's grid penalty.

Bahrain GP Report - Changed days

To think that just over two weeks ago after Melbourne's season-opening qualifying session we were bracing ourselves for a year of Mercedes domination. Somehow Ferrari, and Sebastian Vettel, has won the campaign's opening two rounds. The first time the Scuderia has done so since its pomp of 2004.

Against advance expectations Sebastian Vettel

made it two wins from two

Photo: Octane Photography

It's not been quite as simple as those days of demonstration runs in red. The Melbourne win owed much to external events. This time in Bahrain though it all of a sudden was down to pace, mixed on race day with some seat of the pants strategy. F1 whatever else happens never loses its capacity to surprise.

Quite where the Ferrari potency came from isn't clear, but Bahrain is a very different challenge in temperature and layout to Australia; the Italian team also had worked on its troublesome front end between rounds. Add in F1's capacity for voodoo and the Ferrari was the car to beat here.

It locked out the front row of the grid, Vettel ahead, and looked hard to stop. A recent F1 truism is that the usually haughty Mercedes is less happy relatively on softer tyre compounds, as well as when the temperatures go up. The combination of these in Bahrain led to it struggling with overheating the supersoft rubber in qualifying. Adding to its woe, gearbox damage from Melbourne meant Lewis Hamilton had to add five to his starting slot from the fourth place he managed in quali. But of course Mercedes is never to be counted out, and it sought to make a virtue of its vices.

Australian GP Report - Who's smiling now?

For all that much is new in contemporary F1, the pecking order in the season-opening Australian Grand Prix in Melbourne's Albert Park looked terribly familiar. The grand reveal of the first qualifying session confirmed the efficacy of the pre-season testing grapevine. We had a tight midfield with Haas heading it. Ferrari and Red Bull close to each other. Mercedes well clear. There was a hiccup - Valtteri Bottas binned it in qualifying and started 15th. Yet Lewis Hamilton stunned all with his final effort and was nine tenths clear on pole.

Sebastian Vettel took a surprise Australian Grand Prix
win, and smiles were reversed
Photo: Octane Photography

There was much talk of a special Mercedes 'party mode' for the last of quali, denied by all in the silver camp. And when jibed by his rival Sebastian Vettel on the subject Lewis retorted that his late boost instead was the desire to "wipe the smile off your face".

"I think what goes around comes around," Seb rejoined. "He's free to have a party tonight and then hopefully Kimi [Raikkonen] and myself will have a party tomorrow."

It seems he's as good a mystic as racing driver.

Come the race things initially were in a similar vein to qualifying however. Lewis didn't run away from the Ferrari pair next up but looked undeniably comfortable. As for Vettel, he wasn't even the fastest Ferrari as Kimi set the Scuderia pace. In that familiar way it was all rather follow my leader too.

Australian GP Betting Preview - Early birds

You know what they say about the early bird. It applies to F1 betting. As this point before the season actually starts is unique; only now do none of us really know who among the season's cars and drivers is actually quick and not quick when it matters. And this gives opportunities.

There are opportunities for the F1
gambler prior to the first race
Photo: Octane Photography

The pre-season testing consensus was that the 'big three' of Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull are close, more so than we've got used to. But equally there was a sense from testing that Merc remains out front. Plus in this hybrid era there's been little money to be made from backing anyone else - four championship doubles from four; 63 race wins from 79...

Lewis Hamilton therefore is the unimaginative bet for 2018 but also likely the safest one, and you can near enough double your money on a Hamilton title by backing him at 5/6.

Nevertheless if Red Bull is indeed starting a season strongly for once then the 8/1 available for Max Verstappen to win this year's championship looks pretty good medium range value.

F1 2018 Season Preview: Toro Rosso - International relations

It goes to show that in this game should never make your mind up irrecoverably. Before testing we didn't expect much of Toro Rosso this year beyond struggle. Due not least to it being left holding the Honda power unit when the music stopped.

Photo: Octane Photography

Two weeks of testing later and things look a little different. Toro Rosso with the supposedly ultra unreliable Japanese unit in fact topped the mileage charts in testing's first week. And while accepting the weather disruption made that part slightly odd, even at the end of testing overall only the much better resourced Mercedes and Ferrari out-ran it. There was only one (minor) Honda failure that anyone was aware of. Honda indeed near enough doubled the pre-season mileage it got 12 months ago.

In a more broad sense some yet hold out hope of the Honda unit's ultimate potential. The resources are there of course, as presumably is its commitment given it's still around post McLaren's ditching.

Abu Dhabi Qualifying - Bottas on the bounce

Abu Dhabi visits, on track at least, aren't known for thrills. And from an early point of this Yas Marina weekend it was clear that one source of potential thrill was taken away. Mercedes was on another level to the rest.

Valtteri Bottas beat the odds to take his second pole in a row
Photo: Octane Photography

But in the qualifying session we got a thrill. We thought Lewis Hamilton would be a step ahead even of the two Mercs. But the other Merc, that piloted by Valtteri Bottas, denied him pole position.

And Bottas had plenty to overcome. Lewis was self-admittedly wary of relenting with the title won after doing just that late in 2015, which was followed by him losing the subsequent one.

Lewis had the machine to do it with too, his relatively fresh engine - a consequence of changing it after his Brazil qualifying crash - meant that he could run at full bean much more than most others. Plus Abu Dhabi is one of his happy hunting grounds.

Abu Dhabi Preview - The sun goes down

The sun goes down on another F1 campaign. And with this analogy it's appropriate that the final round is the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix - F1's first and so far only day-to-night event.

In an appropriate place, the sun goes down on the
latest F1 season in Abu Dhabi
Photo: Octane Photography

And it's not only down to start time scheduling that the Yas Marina round is a world away from the previous one at Interlagos. If the Brazilian stop-off is modern F1's Bermuda Triangle Abu Dhabi's perhaps is its most standard.

While if the Brazil round possibly is the most old school on the calendar this one arguably is its most modern. Wide, smooth and open replaces narrow, bumpy and enclosed. Nearby things to hit are replaced by vast run off areas. Mighty turns are replaced by fiddly. Rustic and well worn becomes towering and gleaming. Altitude becomes sea level. Weather that can be anywhere in the range becomes that of the unchanging desert...

But there are parallels. Both tracks are two parts full throttle and one part incongruously twisty. And if all (including Mercedes) entered the Interlagos weekend worried that the twisty bit would let Ferrari and Red Bull get ahead, it in fact set the pace. And did so pretty crushingly, even if circumstance kept it away from the top step of the podium.

Austin Qualifying - Making it more inevitable

If this year's title destination seemed inevitable, the Austin weekend thus far has done little to alter that status.

Lewis Hamilton made his fourth world
title even more inevitable with pole
Photo: Octane Photography

Yes one does not get rich backing against Lewis Hamilton at Austin's Circuit of the Americas. But even so the extent of his advantage stunned, not least as Mercedes on pure pace this time looked ahead too.

And Lewis, as if leaving nothing to chance on any front, has topped every Austin session. Including in qualifying.

He cruised to pole with minimal rancour, his first effort in Q3 - even with a derate - good enough by a way.

"He's moved onto a different plane since the summer," noted an observing Pat Symonds.