Saturday 5 July 2014

British GP Betting Preview - Must win for Hamilton on home soil

A year on from tyre drama at Silverstone and the Mercedes showdown should be the talking point from the famous British circuit as it reaches its 50th anniversary this weekend.

Is the smart money with Nico Rosberg this weekend?
Photo: Octane Photography
After Williams out-qualified the field in Austria, the championship leaders at Merc will be keen to assert their dominance once more and put in a strong performance throughout. Yet Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg will only be thinking of one thing, beating each other.

The pendulum has swung in the direction of Rosberg who has beat his team mate in the last three races and still has yet to finish outside the top two this season, resulting in a 29 point championship advantage over his stable mate and the rest.

The pressure has been ramped up by the German, evident in qualifying as Hamilton has struggled on what normally is his advantage on team mates in years gone by. Lewis has to get back to what he does best and concentrate on delivering the perfect lap in qualifying. A pole position will completely change the mindset of Hamilton who thrives on feeling the best and the body language will flip in a heartbeat. Can he get that all important one lap under the weight of the British public? Difficult call...

Showers in the air may help the Brit throughout the weekend as the potential of rain threatens Silverstone. The rest of the field will again be looking for help to catch the runaway Constructors' Championship leaders and expect Williams to drop back into the chasing pack as the circuit combines long straights and high speed corners, bringing the Red Bull back into play after a disappointing Austrian GP two weeks ago.

Best bets of the weekend

Winner: Nico Rosberg - 3.25

The pressure is cranked up for Lewis this weekend at his home Grand Prix and I fear it maybe too much for him. Rosberg is in form, won in Silverstone last year and has that championship lead to attack the circuit without the fear of damaging his chances irreparably. As much as I would love to see Hamilton win, 3.25 is a price that shouldn't be ignored

Is Vettel set to bounce back?
Photo: Octane Photography
Podium Finish: Sebastian Vettel - 3.1

The Red Bull race pace has looked strong in FP2 and the unlucky streak Vettel is currently stuck in may end this weekend.

Top 6 Finish: Jenson Button - 3.0

Bit of a homer but the McLaren look to have some good pace this weekend. A strong performance in rainy conditions on Saturday could boost Button and his chances of scoring some solid points.

Other Bets

Fastest Lap: Lewis Hamilton - 2.7

Whether he's out in front or chasing the lead, Hamilton will want to try and put on a show at some stage for the fans and he should be quick at the end of the race.

Quali/Win Double: Rosberg/Hamilton - 8

This outcome would definitely be one for the fans. If Rosberg can get pole then Hamilton will be full steam ahead to try and catch the championship leader. One to remember.

Is Daniil Kvyat worth a punt?
Photo: Octane Photography
Qualifying Top 10: Daniil Kvyat - 2.04

At least one Toro Rosso has made the top 10 in qualifying in the last three races and Kvyat has done it twice in three races.

Bets we've made this weekend

All the bets above - couldn't help myself for Silverstone!

All odds courtesy of Betfair Exchange during FP3 on Saturday Afternoon GMT

This post is written by Andy Morgan. It originally featured on F1 2014 Betting Preview and has been reproduced with permission.

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