Wednesday, 7 June 2017

Canadian GP Betting Preview - Value with Vettel

Pride comes before a fall, as my mother likes to say.

There are plenty of reasons to think Sebastian Vettel
 will lead again this weekend
Photo: Octane Photography
After starting to crow last time about how this betting preview column was developing rather a charmed existence, in Monaco it had a car crash. But for a few reasons, Canada this weekend could be a good place for a bounce back.

A few themes have developed in 2017 F1. Ferrari is good everywhere. Mercedes is not good on low grip tracks that are made up mainly of slow corners, as well as on softer tyre compounds. See Russia and Monaco. And in Montreal it'll face pretty much exactly the same again.

Therefore the smart money could be on Sebastian Vettel, and he's not even odds on for the Canadian pole and win. He can be backed at 21/10 for the former and 8/5 for the latter, and both appear great value.

It might be worth keeping your money away from the other Ferrari of Kimi Raikkonen though, even with his odds being generous (14/1 to win for example). His recent record at this track is iffy (as outlined in my event preview) plus there is the question lingering of how much Monaco and all that has impacted his form.

Yet for the bookies old habits appear to die hard, as Lewis Hamilton remains their favourite for the pole and win (with odds of 11/10 and 11/8 respectively). In fairness Lewis has a strong record here - having won five Canadian Grands Prix including the last two. But the bookies may be behind the curve.

Valtteri Bottas has a good record at Montreal
Photo: Octane Photography
It may be worth backing his fellow Merc pilot Valtteri Bottas to get on the podium though, at 4/6. He's another with a good record here, indeed has finished in the top three in the last two Montreal visits. In a Williams. Remember too that if Kimi is indeed off it this weekend then the Merc pair should, with reliability and the like, join Vettel on the podium; Red Bull is likely to still be behind even a struggling Merc, particularly with Montreal's long straights.

While with all of this, and that Bottas is a strong qualifier and has gone better than Lewis in the sort of low grip etc scenario outlined above (indeed he only just was pipped by Ferrari in Monaco's qualifying), it may be even worth a cheeky punt on Valtteri to get the pole this time. You can get a whole 9/2 for that.

Having mentioned Williams, as the above intimates the Grove squad has a good previous at Montreal also, as does Force India. Felipe Massa to finish in the top six can be backed at 6/4 while Sergio Perez is slightly narrower to do the same at 11/10. If you fancy sticking your neck out then the ever-improving Esteban Ocon in the other Force India can be got at 5/1 for this. Also a double points finish for Force India is available at 6/5.

If you fancy a real long punt then what about the other Williams pilot Lance Stroll to get into the top six – available at a fat 16/1? Given how he's gone this year though, particularly in getting his tyres working, it may be better to tone down your ambitions a little and back him to get into the top ten at a still-tempting 24/13.

All odds quoted in this article were accurate on the Oddschecker website at 2100 BST on Wednesday 7 June 2017.

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