F1 2017 Season Preview: Ferrari - Under promise and over deliver

Ferrari might actually be learning. Twelve months ago much bombast emanated from the Scuderia. Its abrasive president Sergio Marchionne spoke of championships, but the car was a desperate disappointment and the team unravelled. This year, in its early days the exact opposite is happening it seems, in both senses.

Photo: Octane Photography

The team appears to have embodied the Italian phrase on their caps, translating as that one should keep their feet on the ground and their head down. On Marchionne's orders barely a peep has been heard from Maranello this winter, and whaddayaknow, the Ferrari machine the team's come up with looks a good one. "I think we learned our lessons from the past years" noted Kimi Raikkonen in Barcelona testing, not for nothing.

Marchionne learned at last it seemed that he should pour oil on troubled waters. The team resisted any temptation to head hunt after its hollowing out of its technical team last year, and instead backed the people it had (with Rory Byrne brought out of hibernation). And the launched car appeared purposeful, with interesting innovation most notably in its sidepod shape but also in the bargeboards and the front of the floor. There's solid talk too of a bold new piston design.

Most importantly the red car looked superb on track in testing, on all tyre compounds and all programmes seemingly. The car could be seen going precisely where the drivers wanted and almost never got out of line even on full throttle.

"The Ferrari simply looked like the best car out there" stated an observing Gary Anderson. "Mario Andretti used to say that the ground-effect Lotus 79 he won the 1978 world championship in was painted to the road, and that's exactly what the Ferrari looked like."

It translated to lap times too as Sebastian Vettel's fastest mark was just a quarter of a second off Valtteri Bottas's table-topping pace and was done on soft rubber rather than the Mercedes's ultra-soft.

Of course, there are some caveats. Ferrari usually runs lower fuel than Mercedes in testing, plus it's thought the silver squad hasn't been running its engines on full chat. In previous years the major part of Ferrari's deficit lay in qualifying that rather than in general running. While false dawns are far from unheard of in Maranello; in the opening test a year ago indeed Ferrari was fastest on three of the four days.

And Vettel was suitably cautious in his words about the SF70H: "By the looks of it the car is working, we don't have any major issues. In terms of performance, still too early to tell but by the looks of it we still need to find a decent chunk, so there's a lot of work ahead."

But at the very least we can say that Ferrari has improved, which is just as well as the fallout of another disappointing season would likely have us hiding behind sofas. And McLaren boss Eric Boullier probably got closest of all: "The Ferrari is surprising and people were not expecting Ferrari to be matching Mercedes's lap times."

Sebastian Vettel - Car #5

Photo: Octane Photography

It's easy to forget that without rather glaring pit wall errors Sebastian Vettel could have had three race wins from the first half of the 2016 F1 season. With that, even with what came next, our views of his campaign would be very different. But rather than the anticipated championship charge he became just the latest to discover the tendency for hopes down Maranello way to be dashed. With it any sense of his charmed existence ended abruptly. And for Seb the transition seemed a painful one.

Increasingly so as the year progressed. His driving got a little scrappy, particularly in the opening corners of races, some of his personal behaviour got tetchy, and oddly too he appeared to lose his qualifying talisman with his team mate Kimi Raikkonen actually ending up ahead on the quali count. It all left some to wonder, with minds on 2014 as well, that while Seb gets the absolute maximum out of a good situation perhaps in difficult situations he doesn't keep up his own end of the bargain. Then a rift with his immediate boss Maurizio Arrivabene got public, with the latter stating his driver should stick to the driving instead on sticking his nose into team running. For someone like Seb - one who among other things lauds Michael Schumacher - it could have been designed to wound. Perhaps it was.

But we shouldn't get too excited on all of this. Vettel remains absolutely one of the best things about Ferrari, and he showed it plenty even in his difficult campaign just passed. And if Ferrari is indeed set for a bounce back this year then you can bet rather a lot on Vettel doing the same.

Kimi Raikkonen - Car #7

Photo: Octane Photography

F1 can be quite the mystery. Most were nonplussed - some were cynical - when in Silverstone last July Ferrari confirmed Kimi Raikkonen's retention for this campaign. Yet it was only in the rounds after that Kimi's performances demonstrated that the Scuderia was onto something.

As the season went on he looked more and more a man transformed. He indeed headed stable mate Sebastian Vettel in the points standings late in the season, and might have stayed there had he not got the rough end of the stick a few times. He even managed to show up better in qualifying, his bugbear of recent seasons, and started ahead of Seb in the final five rounds. This helped him actually top that match-up for the year.

With political whirlwind all around him particularly in the year's latter part few are better equipped to let all debris bounce off than the bullet proof Finn. But it wasn't all that; it also owed plenty to engineering changes mid-season and Kimi at last getting a Ferrari machine more suited to his handling taste.

Which brings us to a potential bottom line. For years we were told that Raikkonen needed a responsive car to do full justice to his talent. Testing thus far suggests Ferrari this time is providing precisely that. Should we do the math?

F1 2017 Season Preview: Red Bull - Sticking to what you're good at

So reports of Red Bull's F1 death were greatly exaggerated. In 2016 the team stopped arguing with its engine supplier and threatening to quit the sport, and got back to what it's good at. Which is building exceptional F1 racing cars and making the best of it with extraordinary swagger.

Photo: Octane Photography

The fourth place that the team drifted to in the 2015 constructors' table was a year on converted to a clear and striding second, as well as status as perhaps Mercedes's only irritant. By consensus too the still-maligned Renault power unit accounted for most, perhaps all, of the deficit.

The consensus from far out also was that the 2017 regs - with bags more downforce available - would suit the Bulls just fine. And with it the team became something it's less accustomed to, the vessel into which neutrals poured their will. As James Allen for one noted on Twitter at the time of the RB13's launch, there are a "lot of hopes riding on this Red Bull car to make a competition of it this year".

Yet at the very same launch things threatened to deflate a little, as onlookers were slightly underwhelmed. "I think for the most of of us the first impressions were 'where's all the really clever stuff on there?'" said Craig Scarborough of the new machine. Gary Anderson concurred that "the Red Bull doesn't have the same wow factor that you get from looking at the Ferrari sidepods/bargeboard area or the depth of the Mercedes design detail." True its 'Pingu' nose got attention, but the paddock view is that's a nice feature not a game changer.

Its start to testing was a little inauspicious too, with a double technical stoppage on the opening day, and lap times (and mileage) not troubling Ferrari let alone Merc. Word also developed that while Mercedes's trick suspension would be declared kosher the Red Bull system would not be.

But we shouldn't forget the team we're dealing with. "The one thing you can be sure of with Red Bull is that it never shows its wares until late in pre-season testing, if at all" cautioned Anderson. While Scarborough added that "this is the style of Adrian Newey that he's very minimalist in adding bits and pieces to the car. But only when you start to look at some of the shapes and some of the simpler details you can the start to see their underlying complexities."

Both drivers have insisted also that they're not chasing lap times yet. "For us at the moment it is not showing how quick we can be" noted Max Verstappen after day two. Daniel Ricciardo later spoke in simailr terms. "We're trying to get some laps, some consistent laps, for reliability as well, to make sure nothing's getting hot or there's no problems," he said. "The lap times, for now it's still not too representative."

There also was good news that the Renault unit indeed appears to have stepped up finally, and there was an unusual accompanying sight in testing of Red Bulls near the top of speed trap charts... Renault engine chief Remi Taffin reckoned the unit is "95% different" and Verstappen added that on that front "we're definitely catching up". There are strong accompanying rumours that the layout has been tidied too giving the Bulls' designers yet more space to play with.

And if 2016 confirmed anything it is that we should never count Red Bull out. It remains a formidable organisation.

Daniel Ricciardo - Car #3

Photo: Octane Photography

The excitement around Red Bull these days applies absolutely to its driver line up. And in an age hardly short on fine pilots there is a growing view that Daniel Ricciardo is the very best out of all of them.

It's certainly difficult to identify reasons why he isn't. He is one with everything - stunning pace particularly on a qualifying lap; being equally at home on the fast and mighty as in the tight and technical; Fernando Alonso-like racecraft and ability to avoid trouble; resolute consistency; a voracious willingness to race; sound judgement; fine brain power and apparent imperviousness to pressure. As for faults? Nothing obvious. Errors, even off days, from him are hard to pinpoint.

All of this and more was on show in 2016. That he won but once, and rode his luck in doing that, is quite the inappropriate calling card. With more even fortune three other wins could/should have been his and even so he wrapped up third place behind the Mercs in the drivers' table with two rounds remaining - a battle that by rights should have been close. While his entire Monaco weekend - on the sheer exhilarating edge in qualifying; clearly the quickest in wet and dry in the race - was one for the ages. That weekend confirmed too that he lacks nothing for determination and seriousness, for all his famous perma-smile.

More durable Pirellis this season should make him even more potent, given the closest thing he's had to a weakness is looking after his tyres in races. Make no mistake, if the Red Bull is even nearly as good as the Mercedes, Ricciardo will be right there.

Max Verstappen - Car #33

Photo: Octane Photography

Sometimes, even in F1, do believe the hype. In 2016 it was confirmed beyond reasonable doubt that Max Verstappen is a phenomenon. And where the 19 year-old goes from here simply is uncharted - without exaggeration the sport never has had someone this good this early.

Yes we knew he was quick. We knew also that he is the sport's most willing - and possibly most able - overtaker (and an elegant one as well). But we got confirmation of other things too. That he has brain power, poise, adaptability and a fine ability to stretch out the life of any tyre compound. And, oh yeah, he stepped into a front-running team mid-season without the tiniest hesitation in his stride.

There still are things to iron out - some of his moves in defence of his place stretched standards of decency and just like in 2015 while he was quick in Monaco he couldn't keep his car out of the barriers for long. More fundamentally some wondered if his fine drives owed more to gentle tyre handling than stunning raw pace (a skill that may become largely obsolete with more durable Pirellis this year). But another thing he is quick at is learning, and this included that while when he joined Red Bull his qualifying deficit to Ricciardo was notable at a few tenths consistently, as the season entered its final chapter Max was qualifying ahead with something like regularity. Many of the foibles and errors of his debut 2015 season were gone too last campaign.

And it built up to his crescendo in Brazil's foul conditions, where Max far surpassed even what he had done before with a drive that left jaws on the floor. Even the most truculent surely are converted now.

F1 2017 Season Preview: Mercedes - Plus ca change...

Everything changes but you, as Take That once sang. Much has changed between the last F1 season and this, as the sport starts but its latest new formula. Yet one thing appears to be staying exactly as before - that Mercedes is the team on top.

Photo: Octane Photography

A fundamental rule change meant a reset. Added to this, after three years of dominance finally the first cracks on the Merc edifice became apparent between seasons. Not only did its new world champion driver Nico Rosberg walk but so - and perhaps more traumatically - did its technical architect Paddy Lowe. What's more murmurs could be heard that the latter move owed to boss Toto Wolff seeking to encroach onto Lowe's territory.

But really Mercedes was set fair nevertheless. Part of the reason is that for all that people reminisce about 2009, Brawn and all that, it was an exception. The rule instead is for things to stay much as they are even with a big regulation shift, as the big guys are best placed to adapt. And perhaps the front-runner is best placed of all. "When you're not trying to play catch up," said Craig Scarborough recently, "you're really free then to divert so much more resources into what the next step forwards is."

Yet Merc was set fair for more immediate reasons too. "They've already got the best power unit in F1," opined Ted Kravitz on testing's opening day, "all they needed to do was not mess up the design of the car".

Indeed. And the launch of the W08 confirmed that the team had made no such boo boo. Far from it. "Not only have they not messed up the design of the car," Kravitz continued, "it has some of the most advanced and detailed aerodynamics in this pit lane."

Scarborough concurred. "They've really re-thought every aspect of the car front to rear," he observed. "It's going to take us weeks to unpick every little bit and piece that's been done to that car...it looks quite ominous." Matt Somerfield concluded that the Brackley team "does not look to be giving up any of its advantage any time soon."

Then the opening day of testing dashed any thoughts that were still lingering that Merc was about to be usurped. As most others flailed the silver car got straight down to business, circulating the Montmelo track like a clockwork toy. It was clearly atop the mileage chart, looked the best thing on-track visually, and you struggled to find anyone in the paddock that didn't reckon it was ahead. An engine upgrade awaits for Melbourne too. There seemed something terribly familiar about it all. Lewis Hamilton even allowed himself some atypical-for-testing public bombast: "our car looks a thousand times better than everyone else's" he said.

Few were arguing however. Not everything changes. Mercedes remains the team to beat.

Lewis Hamilton - Car #44

Photo: Octane Photography

He won't be lacking for motivation this year. It's clear that Lewis Hamilton considers the world drivers' title his right, particularly when he has access to a table-topping Merc.

Then there is the context. As Toto Wolff said in recent weeks, inimitably, Lewis is "digested by losing out to Nico [Rosberg]" to the crown last year. "The only thing he has on his mind is trying to fight back...He's certainly very motivated".

In a sense Lewis also is correct to think in such a way. The best car allied to his extraordinary pace and skills, and particularly this time with a team mate getting his feet under the table, should add up to the world championship. He also certainly should have won the title last year inasmuch that even a minor re-tilting of his many mechanical gremlins against those of his team mate Rosberg would with it have tilted the championship his way. But then again so would have elimination of the niggling, maddening, off days and errors that peppered his 2016 scorecard. And with Lewis now aged 32 the probability grows that it's evidence of flaws rather than creases to be ironed out in his development.

Which likely brings us to the crux. Lewis Hamilton is most likely to win the 2017 drivers' championship. But perhaps among the range of (admittedly remote) means by which he might be stopped in this, chief among them also is Lewis Hamilton.

Valtteri Bottas - Car #77

Photo: Octane Photography

Valtteri Bottas knows more than most about the fickleness that stalks F1. Just two years back most thought him a world champion in waiting. In the relatively short period since however his reputation has stagnated. Some reckoned that reflected little other than his Williams mount drifting from the front-running pace and Bottas's reputation suffering cruelly by association. Yet even so when the Finn's fortune suddenly swung back to get the prize Mercedes seat for this campaign, some remained conspicuously underwhelmed.

Bottas though has much in his armoury. He is quick particularly on a qualifying lap, smart, and can be counted on to bag points consistently. Observers consider his touch on the tyres something of wonder.

Then again precisely how well he'll do is largely unknowable at this point. For one thing even with a team mate of Hamilton's quality the margins between perceived success and failure are likely to be in decimal points rather than whole numbers. And as Martin Brundle noted it may not simply be a matter of talent but also of temperament - in other words how will the Finn adapt to a team where victory is expected?

He also has but a one year contract and we've already outlined how paddock minds can be made up quickly (and not always fairly). So he must deliver - which likely will mean at least doing nearly as well as the guy he's replaced - and right away. But as Mark Gallagher pointed out it's a very nice problem for Bottas to have, and one that just about anyone on the grid would seize gladly. One way or another, this campaign will answer a lot of questions about him.

Inside Line F1 Podcast - From T-Bone To T-Wing

The 't-wing' has been the talk of the paddock and the pre-season test in Barcelona. While most teams have one, Mercedes have gone and got themselves two! Will the t-wing be outlawed, like the t-bone? And then what about the shark-fin cover which seems more like an ugly whiteboard this season? The 2017 cars look sexy, no doubt, but get rid of these aero add-ons, please?

In this week's episode of the Inside Line F1 Podcast, Mithila and Kunal refrain from cracking too many McLaren-Honda jokes and then settle for a self-imposed of at least a joke each. If Lewis Hamilton says that overtaking might be difficult in these new cars, there's a serious cause of worry, especially because there's only one Max 'Overtake' Verstappen on the grid.

They also discuss the trigger for Williams-JCB partnership, Liberty Media's liberty to Formula 1 teams for generating social media content, Fernando Alonso's Red Bull Racing inspired helmet design and how RAI won Hamilton's helmet design competition. Tune in!

Remember to subscribe to the Inside Line F1 Podcast on iTunes and audioBoom for your weekly dose of Formula 1 humour.

(Season 2017, Episode 08)

New Motor Verso article: All Change In Formula 1 2017? Not Quite Yet

Photo: Octane Photography

For the most part you would be forgiven for thinking that not a great deal changes in F1. But all of a sudden, as we sit on the cusp on the 2017 season, just about everything in the sport seems to be changing, not least in just the latest round of radical technical regulation changes.

For Motor Verso I look ahead to what we can expect in F1 2017, and explain why even with all the change not a great deal may change on-track. You can have a read here: http://www.motorverso.com/all-change-in-formula-1-2017-not-quite-yet/

Do check out the Motor Verso site too; you'll find motoring news, car reviews and features - the team on the site carry out week-long test drives of the latest cars - as well as photos and videos of the machines.

New Motorsport Week article: What to look for (and not) in Barcelona testing

Photo: Octane Photography

And so, one of the most anticipated points on the F1 calendar is just about upon us. The opening pre-season test, where all the gleaming new machines be be running on track together. And this year with a host of new technical rules the anticipation is even more keen than usual.

But...as we keep being reminded interpreting the goings-on in F1 testing is rather an intricate exercise, certainly is not nearly as simple as looking at the headline lap times.

In my latest though for Motorsport Week I outline a few things from my meandering experience of watching testing that may help in unravelling the knotted but key matter of who is quick and who is not. You can have a read here: https://www.motorsportweek.com/news/id/13873

Inside Line F1 Podcast - Williams' Unexpected Reveal Shocks Sauber

Sauber is on pole position - to launch 2017's first Formula 1 car. The strange part is that two relatively unknown drivers (Ericsson and Wehrlein) will unveil the new looking Formula 1 car. Given the excitement around the new look, couldn't Formula 1 (read: Liberty Media) get some of their superstar drivers to do so?

But this pole position works well for Sauber. It is a PR masterstroke. This unveil might garner them more publicity than the previous two seasons put together. As for McLaren, they almost clinched pole! Their agency might have just leaked their livery images on social media.

PS: Williams' unexpected reveal on Autosport/Motorsport was after this podcast was recorded and published.

Nico Rosberg wants to go back to being friends with Lewis Hamilton. Is it easier for him to say so now that he's beaten him? Either way, we think Rosberg-Hamilton could be the Rocky Balboa-Apollo Creed of Formula 1.

And in this week's episode of the Inside Line F1 Podcast, we dissect Juan Pablo Montoya's comment on 'weak' European drivers, the engine fire-up by teams, Kimi Raikkonen's karaoke skills and new bar and Fernando Alonso's really cool emojis.

New Motorsport Week article: The 1997 Formula 1 season - A forgotten classic

By Cord Rodefeld from Ulm, Germany (Hockenheim 1997)
[CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/
by-sa/2.0) or CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org
/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Winter months can stretch long for an F1 fan. Particularly so these days with severe testing restrictions, meaning that for the most part we can't even indulge our habit for trying to read what wintry test days can possibly mean.

But there always is F1 history to delve into, and it helps that the turn of a new year brings a whole new load of anniversaries that give us an excuse to look back.

And with this we now are 20 years on from a classic F1 season. One wherein competitiveness akin to the heady days of the 1970s returned to the grid. But one too that doesn't seem to get retro features as readily as you'd think.

In my latest for Motorsport Week I do my best to right that wrong, and explain why the 1997 F1 season was very very good. You can read it here: https://www.motorsportweek.com/news/id/13757

Inside Line F1 Podcast - Ferrari Missing Historic Bonus From Formula E

Ferrari's 'historic bonus' from Formula 1 has made much news, but given how the Italian manufacturer is ignoring Formula E, there's little chance that it'll ever get one from the all-electric series. Are quit Formula 1 threats around the corner for Ferrari?

It also seems that tyre strategy isn't the only thing Ferrari is confused about. On one hand, it's talking of reconsidering the involvement in Formula 1 because of the dwindling viewership, but on the other hand, it is considering purchasing shares in the sport. Strange are your ways, Ferrari!

In this week's episode of the Inside Line F1 Podcast, Mithila and Kunal wonder if McLaren's decision to drop the 'MP4' prefix is an outcome of a visit with a numerologist and what will McLaren achieve first - a win or a title sponsor?

Of all of Ross Brawn's interesting views, we're not sure if doing away with 'blue flags' makes sense and would Mika Hakkinen be upset if the Finnish Formula 1 Grand Prix was held at a circuit called - Kymi Ring?

Lastly, Nico Rosberg might not be the perfect Formula 1 World Drivers' Champion, but he for sure is the perfect Formula 1 fan. Tune in and know why!

Subscribe on iTunes and audioBoom for your weekly dose of Formula 1 humour.

(Season 2017, Episode 06)

New Motorsport Week article: Why F1 might be about to, finally, get it right on overtaking

And with one bound, F1 was free.

Photo: Octane Photography

Free of the ubiquitous Bernie Ecclestone, that is. His demise, while we could see it coming, in the event was abrupt. And in the short time since the sport's observers have been like kids in a sweet shop, pointing furiously at the various things the sport can now solve with Bernie cast to one side.

But the most pressing thing should be to do with what we get on track, and the lingering 'dirty air' problems not letting cars race. There even are reasons to be optimistic on this one, even though the regs to be introduced this year are not likely to help.

For various reasons it's unlikely to be be fixed quickly, but also for various reasons this is no bad thing.

I outline my thinking in my latest article for Motorsport Week. You can have a read here: https://www.motorsportweek.com/news/id/13697