Wednesday, 4 July 2018

British GP Betting Preview - Not looking for a new England

We might think that we start this one with little hope. In our previous betting preview we bemoaned that predicting F1 outcomes is a perilous task right now, and then we had an Austrian race where what we got barely resembled what we reasonably anticipated at the start.

It's worth backing a Mercedes at Silverstone
Photo: Octane Photography
But that we're at Silverstone means the clouds part (unusually for Silverstone you might say) and we get a clear view. Because we have a striking consistent previous to go on.

Mercedes usually dominates here and Lewis Hamilton especially dominates - he's won his last four home rounds. And even with the Mercedes and Lewis trauma that went down in Austria likely the biggest implication was that Merc had stolen a march on the rest with its upgrade.

Therefore there's likely little point putting your money anywhere else for pole and win. And even so the odds for Hamilton to do these offer a pretty decent return - he can be backed at 4/5 to get pole and evens to win.

While if you really want to get behind the prospect of Lewis dominating then there are other ways you can bet on it. A pole, fastest lap and win triumvirate for any driver - i.e. not just Hamilton - can be backed at 11/4 and a pole winning margin of over two tenths can be backed at evens. Mercedes tends also to be strong in first practice and you can back Hamilton to top that session at 5/4.

A useful side bet though may be for his team-mate Valtteri Bottas to prevail - he'll have all the benefits of a Mercedes here of course as he also has a good record at this track. As ever the bookies don't appear to share the faith, even though he proved them wrong with his Austria pole, and he is available this time at 9/2 for pole and 6/1 for victory.

If you prefer hedging then you can get 8/13 on a Mercedes to win, which still looks pretty good, and 1/2 on a Mercedes pole. The only fly in the ointment is that there is a small possibility of a grid penalty for either car after the Austria failures.

Can Max Verstappen get another podium
finish at Silverstone?
Photo: Octane Photography
Silverstone's long corners should suit the Red Bull too and its tended to show up well in recent visits to England. Given the above considerations about Mercedes, backing a podium finish for a Bull may be the most fruitful avenue. You can bet on Max Verstappen to do so at 6/4 - and he's been in magnificent form lately - while Daniel Ricciardo can be backed at a whole 3/1.

With all this Ferrari might be squeezed out so 9/4 on Sebastian Vettel not to finish in the top three may be worth your while.

Of the rest, Nico Hulkenberg will be worth watching. He's usually in the mix for 'best of the rest' and Silverstone last year was likely his strongest weekend of the season, qualifying and finishing sixth and he would have finished a place higher without a late technical problem. You can back him at 9/2 to finish in the top six again and at 8/15 to get in the top 10.

Haas stunned in Austria while at Barcelona, the last track with similar-ish demands, Kevin Magnussen qualified seventh and finished sixth. You can bet on another Magnussen top six this time at 11/8, or at 1/2 for him to score, while his team-mate Romain Grosjean's respective odds are 11/4 and 8/13.

McLaren's woe has been mainly in slow speed grip so Silverstone's faster turns may provide some salvation. The 11/13 available on Fernando Alonso to score may therefore tempt you. Charles Leclerc meanwhile has scored in five of the last six rounds and can be backed to do so again this Sunday at a fat 5/4.

All odds quoted in this article were accurate on the Oddschecker website at 1315 GMT on Wednesday 4 July 2018.

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