Wednesday 7 November 2018

Brazilian GP Betting Preview - After the Lord Mayor's show

For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. And so it is for Lewis Hamilton. As even in the direct aftermath of his greatest triumph so far - his fifth divers' title sealed - there is a potential negative implication. One that may interest the F1 fan looking to profit in the betting market in advance of this weekend's Brazilian Grand Prix.

Will Hamilton, his title won, miss out on race victory?
Photo: Octane Photography
As Hamilton in his F1 career has taken part in five Grands Prix after he's wrapped up that year's championship, and has not won any of them. It's led some to suggest that he's prone to taking his eye slightly off the ball at such moments. While in a more specific sense we can add that his record at the Interlagos circuit isn't all that good by his very exacting standards - he's only won here once and taken two poles.

And in exactly these circumstances 12 months ago at this very venue Hamilton in effect dashed his victory chances immediately by trashing his Mercedes on the first lap of qualifying. While the then-as-now recently-vanquished Sebastian Vettel gave himself and his recently-vanquished Ferrari team some belated succour by winning.

Vettel also was in feisty form in Mexico last time out, at last avoiding the errors that have undermined his recent rounds, while Ferrari since Austin appears to have rediscovered its strong pace of the summer.

The bookies appear to agree, making Vettel in this one favourite for pole and win, with respective odds of 5/4 and 15/8. Those odds look worth your wager.

For a longer range punt it may be fruitful to look towards Hamilton's team-mate Valtteri Bottas. If Hamilton is to relent this time then it could give Bottas an opportunity to step into the breach. Bottas did just this last year in Brazil indeed, taking pole and he likely would have won had Vettel not got ahead at the start. Bottas's form trajectory - starting strongly then tapering off after halfway - has been pretty similar last year and this, but last year too he had a mini upturn in the final two rounds. Starting in Brazil.

Nico Hulkenberg looks worth backing
Photo: Octane Photography
And as always seems the case his odds look very long - 8/1 to get pole again, 6/1 to win, even 9/10 to finish on the podium.

Max Verstappen has been in superb form lately, finishing on the podium in four of the last five rounds, and therefore his 11/8 to finish on the podium again this time looks very generous. Red Bull won't dominate like it did in Mexico but for a few reasons shouldn't be too far off the front.

You also can back Nico Hulkenberg to finish in the top six at 10/3. He's finished sixth in both of the last two rounds, cementing his each as consistently best in 'Class B'. Of course to finish in the first six he'll need one of the six-strong 'Class A' to clear a space, yet Interlagos punishes errors and is tough on equipment. Hulkenberg has fond Interlagos memories too having taken pole in 2010 and led in fine style in '12 (both aided somewhat by rain).

Fernando Alonso's odds to finish in the top 10 this Sunday look oddly extended - possibly related to his recent tendency to not get through the opening laps unscathed - at 11/4. This looks a pretty tidy bet, particularly as Alonso's has a decent record here - last year he qualified seventh and finished eighth.

But we won't leave our newly-crowned champion out entirely. With his fifth title sealed Hamilton now self-admittedly has Michael Schumacher's all-time records in his sights and you can back Hamilton to hit his seven championships by 2020 at 4/1 - which seems a good bet given major technical changes aren't due until 2021. On similar grounds you can bet on Hamilton to win next year's crown at evens, to win '19's opening race at 6/4, and to win more races than anyone else next season at 10/11.

All odds quoted in this article were accurate on the Oddschecker website at 1645 GMT on Wednesday 7 November 2018.

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